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After the blockade was relaxed, Americans flooded beaches and parks, although nCoVs could still quietly spread out through the crowd.
The United States now records nearly 82,000 nCoV deaths, far more than the 60,000 predicted in August. President Donald Trump said the number of deaths could reach 100,000, or even more. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the chief medical adviser to the White House, also said that the number of infections would increase in areas such as nursing homes, prisons or factories.
Despite that, dozens of states have decided to pull out of the blockade to reduce economic losses, amid millions of workers and small business owners who have no income to prevent outbreaks at home. However, It is believed that most reopening processes in the US USA They do not meet the security criteria. Many scientists fear that the second wave of Covid-19 will spill before fall and unpredictably destroy the United States.
People relax in Central Park in New York, the United States, May 3. Image: Reuters.
Commentator Donald McNeil’s The New York City Times Point out that the consequences of the reopening will not be immediately obvious, especially in the absence of extensive evidence. New infections take two to three weeks to become severe and require medical attention. The initial peace can make people ignore surveillance, as well as motivate more governors to loosen the blockade and get into a “car accident.”
Community segregation measures have proven effective in preventing the spread of nCoV. But now even New Yorkers, who once feared living in the midst of the U.S. epidemic, were tired of them. Central Park, which was extremely quiet in late March, is often crowded. More and more cars were driving on empty streets.
McNeil says that nCoV persists based on person-to-person contact. The United States still records about 25,000 new cases of nCoV every day across the country, primarily in families or among medical and emergency personnel. In addition, there are hot spots in meat and poultry factories, veterans hospitals, nursing homes in rural areas.
To curb the virus, some factories that make essential products, such as ventilators, have designed each cell to work 2m apart, requiring body temperature measurement and masks. Many food factories install screens between workers and at the dining table, require masks, check symptoms at the entrance, and further clean the premises. Most nursing homes are not for visitors.
However, these are considered rushed steps toward the goal of returning to “normal life” that few experts accept. Experts at the National Center for Disaster Prevention at Columbia University or Harvard University offer many models for safely reopening the economy, and most agree that a state should achieve at least 14 days of reduction. new cases continuously before considering reopening. Almost no state is extending a lock to meet this minimum standard.
All guiding models emphasize the importance of comprehensive testing and systematic traceability. However, retesting is a “headache” problem for the United States. Most admit that the country is testing very few, but disagrees with the amount of testing that needs to be done.
Following the model of Harvard University, to detect the disease early, EE. USA You need to perform 20 million tests a day across the country. Brett Giroir, deputy secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services, said “there is absolutely no way” to achieve that goal, adding that by June they will be able to perform 8 million tests a month. .
The goal of tracking and testing every contact with a person with nCoV seems to be a “utopia”. Based on epidemiological models in the USA. USA And data from China, each case has around 50 cases of exposure. Thus, 25,000 new infections per day in the US. USA They will create approximately 1.3 million exposures.
Even in an ideal situation, each group of 5 tracers took 3 days to find 50 cases. Currently, the United States Tracking Force has around 3,000 people. One of the proposed options is to use technology to automate this process. However, Americans are believed to be difficult to accept to be followed.
Mandatory masking is a way to prevent nCoV from spreading effectively, based on evidence not only from Asia, where the item has been popular for a long time, but also in many other countries, such as Germany, the Czech Republic, Israel, logistics groups. to encourage people to wear masks 4All masks.
George Gao, director of China’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, also said that the biggest mistake that kept the United States and some European countries from controlling the pandemic was “people without masks.” In addition to New York, California, and several other states, Many Americans refuse to comply with this measure.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine had to cancel the mandatory masking order because local residents complained that they were “ashamed.” Stillwater, Oklahoma city officials made the same decision after vendors were threatened by preventing people from wearing masks to buy things. The problem seems to be more serious when the President of the United States also does not wear a mask.
In the absence of detailed national reopening standards, the governors decided to set their own criteria.. The number of states that allow beauty salons to open may soon be 19. Many locations have agreed to allow restaurants to resume operations, provided they maintain a 2m distance between diners or simply sit outside.
Meanwhile, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has not even set a time limit for loosening across the state, despite new hospital admissions and deaths tending to slow, because he believes the rate of decline is too much. slow. Contrary to New York stealth, the states of Florida, Tennessee, and Texas reopened when the number of cases and deaths skyrocketed.
Experts warn that the decision makes it impossible to predict when the epidemic in the region will peak and at what level, adding that if that scenario occurs, there will be a “wave” of deaths. Unpredictable can cause the deep political shock that some governors have suffered.
People protest against the decision to extend the blockade to avoid Covid-19 in Lansing, Michigan, USA. USA, April 15. Image: Reuters.
According to a recent study of the Spanish flu pandemic (1918-1919) by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit organization in Massachusetts, the blocking measures provide “clear success” in reducing mortality. Efforts to reduce the number of deaths in most cities eventually failed due to early restrictions.
Dr. Thomas Frieden, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. USA, Compare the reopening model of China and Sweden. He said China’s harsh measures, with its state-of-the-art electronic tracking system to prevent the chain of infection while waiting for the vaccine, are taking effect.
By contrast, Sweden’s “community immunity” strategy, which means “letting go,” spread the virus to a significant proportion of the population to develop immunity, which is believed to be boosting the country. Pay dearly, but it helps people live more comfortably. As of May 10, Sweden’s per capita mortality is 319 per million, higher than 242 in the US. USA Frieden considered that the feasibility of the “community immunity” strategy was not identified.
According to commentator Gan, desperate Americans who are hungry for freedom do not realize the laxity of work against the country’s epidemic compared to other countries. The blockade became a political problem, when some extremists saw it as a violation of their individual liberties.
“Our current reopening process is not based on science, but on politics, ideology and public pressure. I think it will lead to a bad result,” Frieden said.
Gloss (Follow The New York City Times)
