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President Hassan Rouhani’s group appears to be seeking endorsement of what they can do with the West. In the old photos posted, Fakhrizadeh received a state title from Rouhani for helping secure the 2015 nuclear deal that Iran signed with the United States and other world powers.
That same day, however, the unpublished audio was played with the scientist’s suspicions about the talks with the United States. Fakhrizadeh says: “There is no commitment to the United States.” It seems that the recording will be done this year.
Scientist Fakhrizadeh.
Several messages emphasize that Fakhrizadeh’s death, in a blatant daytime ambush east of the capital, Tehran, caused a stir in his country. Observers want to know who was responsible for the insecurity associated with the murder and its aftermath. The most urgent is the debate on how Iran should react: moderate, angry or otherwise.
Ali Reza Eshraghi, a visiting scholar at the Center for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the University of North Carolina, said the Fakhrizadeh debates are being used as weapons by conservatives and reformers. “Iran’s Policy Currently Very Controversial”.
The results of these debates could have profound implications for the Biden administration, which hopes to resume nuclear talks after four years of President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against a return to Tehran.
The conservative-dominated Iranian parliament responded to the assassination by passing a law on Wednesday to immediately increase uranium enrichment to levels above the level allowed by the nuclear deal; and suspend United Nations nuclear inspections if banking and oil sanctions against Iran are not lifted in early February.
These moves are likely to complicate President-elect Biden’s ambitions to re-cooperate with Iran.
It is not yet clear whether the Iranian leadership will execute the plan by the end of February. Still, Tehran is likely to expect greater concessions from the West in any new nuclear talks, using the Fakhrizadeh assassination as leverage, analysts said.
The murder, allegedly attributed to Israel and viewed by Iranians as a blatant national insult, could also have consequences for the public after having had a difficult year with the COVID outbreak. -19 more severe in the Middle East and the economic crisis amid the landscape of Western sanctions.
Fakhrizadeh is a key figure in Iran’s nuclear weapons program and is also one of the best-protected officials. The ambush is believed to be part of a series of serious events involving Iran’s intelligence and security agencies, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Earlier, the US drone strike in Baghdad killed the IRGC’s top commander, Major General Qasem Soleimani, and a few days later, Iranian security forces mistakenly fired on a Ukrainian airliner. , killing all 176 people on board. In July, a fire broke out at a nuclear facility that the Iranian authorities deemed “vandalism”. Then, in August, Israeli agents assassinated a senior al Qaeda official in Tehran.
Following Fakhrizadeh’s death, Iranian officials tried to withdraw responsibility for the security breaches. “There is a kind of blame game between government intelligence and IRGC intelligence,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director for Middle East and North Africa programs at Iran’s Council on Foreign Relations.
As news of the ambush spread, Iranian media, based on witnesses, reported that up to 12 culprits were involved and subsequently escaped. However, it was later said that the attack was “a very complicated murder carried out remotely by electronic devices.”
The assassination “raised the pressure of conservatism” in the Iranian political system for Rouhani, who represents the faction most open to nuclear talks. According to Narges Bajoghli, an Iranian specialist at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, said: “There is a lot of backlash in Iran about the need for retaliation, the need to intensify the nuclear energy program.”
Iran’s parliamentary vote to increase nuclear enrichment and suspend UN inspections is the most obvious shot the Conservatives have fired.
Afshon Ostovar, associate professor of national security issues at the United States Naval Graduate School, said Fakhrizadeh’s assassination now threatens to widen the gap between Iran and the United States.
There is a growing consensus in the US that issues other than Iran’s nuclear program, such as ballistic missile development and support for proxies in other parts of the region, may need to be added to any future deal. On the other hand, Iran believes that any agreement does. “you need to reduce the requirements and have more movements than the first agreement”he said.
Furthermore, with Iran slated to hold presidential elections this spring, some analysts predict that the hard-line factions may dominate and consolidate their power, complicating matters. add Biden’s hope of reviving diplomacy with Tehran, experts say.
Another noteworthy point is the possibility that the Trump administration or its allies like Israel could launch another attack in the coming weeks, as they await the new diplomatic move from the Biden group. However, this is uncertain, according to analysts.
