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Image source, EPA
Secretary General, President of State Nguyen Phu Trong and Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc
There is a plan to propose to Messrs. Nguyen Phu Trong and Nguyen Xuan Phuc to continue in the Tu Tru group after the XIII Congress, according to some comments from Vietnamese public opinion on January 9.
Conference 15, considering the Four Pillars option and the special case of over 65s, is about to take place in Hanoi, possibly on January 15.
The XIII Party Congress, which marks the transfer of leadership every five years, will open on January 25 and close on February 2.
Towards this last moment, the public opinion in Vietnam is discussing the plan that the Politburo can present to the Central Committee of the Party at the XV Conference to vote.
Consequently, Conference 15 may consider and vote on Option One:
Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong
State President: Nguyen Xuan Phuc
Prime Minister: Vuong Dinh Hue
President of the National Assembly: Pham Minh Chinh
Option two, for Conference 15 to consider, is a bit different for reversing two titles:
Prime Minister: Pham Minh Chinh
President of the National Assembly: Vuong Dinh Hue
There are opinions among the people of Vietnam that these may be two options supported by the Politburo and will be carried out at Conference 15.
However, there are also opinions that say that the above proposals are predictive.
Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc issued Decision 1722 / QD-TTg dated November 3, 2020 on the List of Party State Secrets, in which State Secrets are Party Top Secret.
Including ‘top secret’ information such as:
– Decisions, conclusions, statements, plans, reports, notices, official letters from the Politburo, the Secretariat, the Central Committee for the Protection of Internal Policy on the results of the inspection and verification of the issue. Policy of the Politburo members, the Secretariat and former Politburo members, the Secretariat has not been made public,
– Reports, reports, communications, decisions, conclusions and official letters of the Central Committee of the Party on the process of preparation, projects and personnel plans The member of the Politburo is the Secretary General, the President of the State, the Prime Minister. General Government, President of the National Assembly, Permanent Secretariat have not been made public.
Decision 1722 / QD-TTg is effective as of November 3, 2020.
Image source, Reuters
Vietnamese leaders attend ASEAN conference in Hanoi on 11/12
Few can confirm it in the context of limited political information in Vietnam.
But it’s possible that Conference 15 will send out more public signals to let people know.
In The Diplomat (January 7), analyst Nguyen Khac Giang has questioned whether the Communist Party of Vietnam at the next congress will choose “stability” or “democracy within the Party.”
Choosing any form over human resources is risky, even a “septic” risk, as the Soviet Union elected Politburo members over 70 in the past Leonid Brezhnev period, this author writes in English. .
Vietnam’s next leadership positions are highly interested and anticipated in the context where Vietnam is expected to be an economic bright spot in the region.
Speaking on December 28, Vietnam’s Secretary General and President Nguyen Phu Trong said that in 2020, the economy is growing positively, reaching 2.91%, contributing to 5-year GDP growth on average 5.9% / year.
He said: “Public debt decreased from 63.7% of GDP at the beginning of the legislature to 55% in 2019; Although there will be an increase in 2020 due to the increased need for spending in response to natural disasters and epidemics, it will still be 56.8%, below the safety threshold set by the National Assembly …
Recently, Vietnam is expected to be the world’s 19th largest economy, surpassing Thailand and Taiwan, according to a London-based research institute.
Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) publishes its annual report. They say that in 2028, they believe that China will become the world’s largest economy, surpassing the United States, five years before their previous prediction.
CEBR was impressed with Vietnam and said that by 2020, Vietnam is also the 37th largest economy in the world, losing 25th to Thailand and 21st, but they predict that by 2035, Vietnam will be better in size. economy, will be ranked 19 in the world, while Thailand 21 and Taiwan 26.
Also in December 2020, the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) announced forecasts that by 2023, Vietnam will become an upper-middle-income country, and by 2035 Vietnam’s GDP will pass Taiwan.
JCER predicts that Vietnam’s per capita income will be $ 11,000 by 2035 and the scale of the economy will be the second largest in the region, after Indonesia.
