Vietnam is difficult to break with “old thinking”?

According to a report by the IMF, by the end of 2020, Vietnam’s nominal GDP will surpass Singapore and Malaysia to become the fourth-largest economy in ASEAN. Ruchir Sharma, chief strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, also said that Vietnam will be one of the fastest growing emerging economies after the pandemic (see the article “Which developing economies will grow after the pandemic”). ? “in the New York Times).

However, that image will probably not be just pink. Besides the bright highlights, there are still a lot of concerns.

The first is the risk of “not getting rich.” In fact, Vietnam has entered the period of population aging in 2011 (with the proportion of people aged 65 and over accounting for 9.9%), it will experience population aging from 2026 to 2054 (accounting for the 10-19.9%), and the very old population stage from 2054 to 2069 (which represents 20-29.9%).

Vietnam is also considered the fastest growing country in the world from “aging population” to “aging population” (20 years), while Japan and China have 26 years, the United Kingdom and Spain. Nha took 45 years. Some interventions aim to maintain replacement fertility, such as abolishing the no third child or PT rule. HCMC encourages women to have more children, … has not yet achieved the expected results.

Furthermore, Vietnam has not really seized the opportunities in the golden demographic period, when the proportion of skilled labor has increased but productivity is still much lower than Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, … even in danger of being reached. for Laos and Cambodia.

Second, making the most of favorable international factors and domestic political stability to continue the success of the past 5 years may no longer be easy when Vietnam begins to face so much pressure. even from Washington – comprehensive, friendly partner and greatest partner.

Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US in the first 10 months of 2020 reached $ 58 billion, surpassing Japan just behind China and Mexico, causing the US Treasury Department to manipulate currencies during the transition of power of the Donald Trump administration.

Third, the development mindset of Vietnamese leaders has not really made much progress. In 2006-2016, due to haste, weak willpower and poor governance, many corporations and state groups, which are expected to be the “steel punch” of the Vietnamese economy, have caused mistakes. serious consequences and consequences (such as corruption, losses, losses in Vinashin, PVN, …) that until now have not been completely overcome.

This shows the ineffectiveness of the development policy of the state economic sector. However, the process of disinvestment of state capital and equity of these companies is still taking place very slowly, continuously delayed.

In addition to the policy of collecting leads in a state capital management supercommittee (instead of SCIC), the recent draft prepared by the Ministry of Planning and Investment also mentions the concept of “large-scale state enterprises”. large “, proposing a separate pilot policy for some specific SOEs in the telecommunications (Mobifone), energy (EVN) and defense industry (Viettel) sector to become” cranes “. the real” leader “of the economy Vietnamese.

This approach doesn’t actually have many changes in quality, it just “hides the dust under the rug”, making it difficult to ensure success and effective risk management.

Looking back in history, Doi Moi’s lesson at the Sixth National Party Congress (1986) is essentially to go back to old values ​​(eliminate state monopolies and liberalize part of the economy) when the leadership model went into crisis. subsidized.

To achieve the goal of prosperity and at least become a middle power worthy of the country’s potential, Vietnam needs to undertake strong, radical and permanent reform without falling into the wrong position. dump of “half reform”. World experience shows that prosperity will be the end result of liberalization.

The historian Johan Norberg, who made the documentary “Sweden: A Lesson for the United States?”, Claims that Sweden is not a socialist country because “the state does not own real material. Export”.

During its period of miraculous growth, East Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan maintained the leading role of the state, but gradually loosened, ended dominance, and left the playing field. for the private sector. Even the most popular companies in China today, which are similar to Vietnam in ideology, like Alibaba, Tencent, … are all privately operated.

The upcoming 13th National Party Congress will plan a roadmap for the next five years to reinforce Vietnam’s success as a young country, dynamically developing and an attractive market. one million people. But that’s just in terms of economics, but in terms of politics and society (in Marx’s words, it’s the superstructure of the economic infrastructure), perhaps Vietnam cannot delay reform. plus.

In the article Vietnam Communists Prepare for the Next 5 Years After Great 2020 (Roughly Translated: Vietnam Consolidates Communist Regime for the Next 5 Years After 2020) in the Nikkei Asia Review, Author Tomaya Onishi quoted the former editor in chief of the Saigon newspaper. Saigon Marketing Dang Tam Chanh, that Vietnamese leaders in the next period need to have effective policies to ensure the “rule of law” model, creating a true free and open space for the people. , as well as specific visions, goals and actions to lead the young generation to develop their full potential.

The article expresses the private opinion of the author, a journalist who lives and works in Hanoi.