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All experts believe that China already has a significant presence in the South China Sea, ahead of the United States, and will use this advantage to force small countries to follow suit.
2020 highlights
The South China Sea in 2020 can be generalized by the following characteristics:
The rise and rise of the Chinese presence after the 2016 South China Sea ruling.
The gathering of forces from countries inside and outside the region through the exchange of notes against the 9-dash line, demanding that China strictly abide by the decision and affirming “The 1982 Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS) is the basis. universal and unified legislation for all activities in the ocean and sea “and” is the basis for determining the ability to create seas, sovereign rights, jurisdiction and legitimate interests over waters “, as well as to resolve disputes in the China Sea Southern.
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| The US cruiser USS Shiloh launched a missile during an exercise in the Philippine Sea. Photo: Reuters |
ASEAN has made new efforts to build a unified position under the leadership of ASEAN President Vietnam; influence of the US presidential election on efforts to shape the Pacific-Indian Ocean strategy of the United States and its allies.
Competition between the United States and China is increasingly fierce through diplomatic notes, gunboat diplomacy, and combat diplomacy in the East Sea.
Both the United States and China want to attract ASEAN countries. Washington wants to emphasize a strong United States, committed to continuing its presence in the region, ensuring upholding of international law, and not allowing either party to monopolize the South China Sea.
Beijing sees the right to see the South China Sea as a “central interest”, does not doubt the American strength and will continue to strengthen its military operations and its presence in the South China Sea as its backyard.
The Covid-19 pandemic did not hinder China, but it had a great impact on the concentration of countries in the region on the issue of the South China Sea. However, the East Sea, with the role of two oceans, geostrategic, economic and ingenious position, is not yet out of the attention of international public opinion. The internationalization trend and legal content in the South China Sea struggle has undergone dramatic developments.
China Movement
Scholars and experts from home and abroad agree that in 2020, China will become more and more aggressive, which is showing on all fronts. Strategically, China is determined to complete the construction of the PLA’s People’s Liberation Army into a “world-class” force by 2037, with a reach beyond the two siege chains established by the United States and its allies. Great War 2 in 2021.
China’s marine science and technology have made a breakthrough. In January 2021, the world’s largest and deepest self-propelled self-propelled exploration platform, built by China, is expected to be launched and brought into operation at the Lingshui 17-2 mine, 150 km south of Hainan. Here, China will also organize a 53,000-ton oil and gas storage platform.
Under the plan, China will build a fleet of 10 aircraft carriers with the vast majority of operations in the South China Sea. China continues to deploy projects of rescue centers, maritime cities, floating nuclear power plants in Changsha, launching submarines, and large underwater research teams.
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| Dong Phuong Hong Boat 3. Photo: Twitter |
The year 2020 marks the completion of its plan to replace its ocean research fleet. In 1958, the country only had 50 marine reconnaissance vessels of all kinds. 42 years later, a fleet of 60 marine scientific research ships with 9 ocean research ships, such as the White Dragon 2, completed its first voyage to Antarctica.
In particular, these ships will be present in the South China Sea in 2020, including the Dong Phuong Hong 3, the world’s largest marine research vessel. The Petrel-X dive team set a world record by reaching a depth of 10,619 m, collecting information on salinity, temperature and elements of deep water.
China also announced the start of a project to build 50 100,000 m3 aquaculture farm vessels capable of catching and farming 200,000 tonnes of high-value seafood.
These activities are the largest in scope, scale and time yet, and if successful, China will officially manage and “own” all maritime activities in the South China Sea.
All experts believe that China already has a significant presence in the South China Sea, ahead of the US and will use this advantage to force small countries to follow suit.
Trends 2021
In 2021, China will continue to combine the three French armies, combining enhancing the presence of maritime vessels and militias.
They are intended for:
Affirming 9-dash and Tu Sa road’s claim to reject the 2016 ruling; Pressure relevant countries to abandon the legal path to dispute resolution;
Pressure foreign investors to leave the project to the countries of the East Sea to implement the policy that no foreign country can participate in the exploration and exploitation of oil in the East Sea; Promote “put aside controversies, exploit jointly”; Reaction to freedom of navigation activities from the US and other countries;
Promote the COC negotiations in a direction that benefits China; To create a position for the “One Belt, One Road” initiative before the change of government in the United States, the Indo-Pacific strategy changes; Establish trading cards when necessary in the strategic competition of a large country; Implement the marine science research strategy over the next decade and ultimately modernize the military and its attached forces.
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| US and Japanese naval warships conduct joint exercises in the South China Sea. Photo: AP |
International experts have also talked a lot about the possibility of establishing an air defense identification area (ADIZ) in the South China Sea. But this possibility also has the opposite effect in China when most of the international trade routes pass through the South China Sea.
In 2021, based on the attitude and response of the United States, China will have enough military activities to intimidate the surrounding countries, while demonstrating to the world its presence and the safety of the South China Sea. under control, instability is caused by external factors.
The year 2021 has not yet converged enough factors to improve the situation. International experts at the 12th South China Sea conference in November also made only general recommendations.
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| Exercise of a Chinese warship in the South China Sea. Photo: Chinamil |
All scholars argue that ASEAN does not have enough military power against China, so it can only rely on legal and diplomatic struggle, gain international support to establish and adhere to a rule-based order. The regional order must be based on interests and values, rules and norms that are common to the institutions that govern the behavior of states and international relations.
Dialogue mechanisms can help countries resolve ambiguities and promote cooperation by expressing intentions and interests. Transparency, dialogue, respect and mutual understanding are all elements of relationships based on trust.
Specialist Carl Thayer proposes to develop a Code of Conduct against incidents at sea, expanding the Regulation on the prevention of involuntary maritime collisions between military forces for civil, commercial and fishing.
Academics are inclined to develop multilateralism, they ask for cooperation to build a rules-based order, they ask China to negotiate. Countries should strive for an effective monitoring and dispute resolution mechanism to stabilize the situation in the South China Sea.
Nguyen hong thao
Part 2 – East Sea 2020: The United States Adjusts Its Policy, Southeast Asia Is Tougher On China
Faced with China’s actions, the US increased military activities in the South China Sea and adjusted its political stance to support the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling.
Part 1 – China Increases Its Activities to Monopolize the South China Sea
Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, tensions in the South China Sea have continued to rise.
