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Rice was brought to the port of My Thoi (An Giang) to pack containers for export. – Photo: CHI QUOC
The Philippine and Malaysian press in the end-of-year summaries have opinions comparing the economic development of these countries with Vietnam.
Last week, the General Bureau of Statistics announced that Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2020 will increase by 2.91%. This figure is quite similar to previous forecasts by international organizations.
In the coming months, Vietnam must succeed in attracting domestic and foreign economic sectors to join the value added chain.
GS Julien Chaisse
“Vietnam is overtaking Malaysia”
In the World Economic Outlook report released in October 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP in 2020 will grow by 2.7%, reaching $ 340.6 billion. and the Philippines is $ 367.36 billion. According to this index, Vietnam’s GDP per capita will reach $ 3,497.51 (almost $ 3,500 / person), higher than the rate of $ 3,372.53 for the Philippines.
Focus Malaysia on December 19, 2020, said that Vietnam is overtaking Malaysia and “we need complete reform.” This economic news page cited the December 2020 report from the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) which predicts that the size of Vietnam’s economy will surpass Taiwan by 2035 and become the fifth largest economy. two from Southeast Asia, just after Indonesia.
Vietnam is also expected to become a middle-income country by 2023 with a per capita income of $ 11,000 per year.
Malaysian MP Lim Kit Siang pointed out that from 1970 to now, Vietnam’s GDP has increased 122 times, while Malaysia has increased 90 times. “In 1970, when we started the New Economic Policy of the NEP, Vietnam’s GDP was $ 2.7 billion, the loss against our GDP is 3.7 billion. But now Vietnam has a GDP to grow stronger and prepare. leaving Malaysia behind for the next few years. “
Meanwhile, the Philippine site manilatimes.net cites IMF forecasts, citing Foxconn Chairman Young Liu questioning why some companies are considering moving their operations out of China. Quoc chose Vietnam, not the Philippines.
The PhilStar newspaper, when discussing the IMF estimate, emphasized the COVID-19 factor. “The Vietnamese are expected to be richer than the Filipinos starting this year, as a direct result of the pandemic and how the two governments responded differently to this health crisis.”
Supermarket staff stacks 2021 New Years gift baskets on the shelf – Photo: QUANG DINH
Optimistic expert about the Vietnamese economy
Looking at Vietnam’s economic outlook, some experts also claimed that Vietnam has a perfect base for recovering from the pandemic as well as overtaking the Philippines and Malaysia.
Speaking with Tuoi Tre, Professor Julien Chaisse from the University of Hong Kong School of Law, an expert on regional economic and trade issues, emphasized the importance of the Vietnamese government managing COVID-19 well. From the beginning.
“The Vietnamese government, after realizing the negative impact of COVID-19 on international investment (15% less in the first 6 months of 2020), decided to establish a special working group under the supervision of The Ministry of Planning and Investments aims to increase the attraction of Vietnam towards multinational companies.
Foreign capital flows are of primary importance to Vietnam’s economy in terms of growth (20% of GDP), exports (foreign-invested companies account for 60-70% of the value of Vietnam’s exports) as well as development of human resources in the country ”- he said.
Commenting on the possibility of Vietnam overtaking Malaysia in terms of GDP and GDP per capita, GS Chaisse stated that Vietnam can do it, especially considering its advantages over rivals like Indonesia. He said that once free trade agreements, for example EVFTA with the European Union (EU) come into play, Vietnam can get a lot of results.
Meanwhile, Professor David Dapice, senior economist at the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation (John F Kennedy School of State Management, Harvard University), said that in the near time, Vietnam needs investment in transportation infrastructure, network power … to respond to the prospect of full employment, reducing factory labor over the next decade.
“I’m not overly concerned about long-term growth forecasts, as environmental problems can weigh on both the Philippines (the storm) and Vietnam (the Mekong delta and rising sea levels). … Also, I think Vietnam will lack cheap labor and therefore will need new sources of growth “- he told Tuoi Tre.
A silver lining for Vietnam in building a foundation to overcome the challenge of long distances may lie in investment confidence, which has built on this year’s encouraging economic performance.
In an online seminar titled “Catching Up on Vietnam,” 3M Vietnam Company Director Jacky Kang said that the epidemic, despite causing general difficulties, shows that Vietnam is in a favorable position. benefit, when the impact of the pandemic here is less than in most other countries thanks to the government’s successful management and control efforts.
Potential opportunities in Vietnam
3M Vietnam Company, according to the latest McKinsey & Company report in June 2020, said that Vietnam received 14.9% more foreign investment and capital contribution compared to June 2019, showing that the international community still sees potential growth opportunities in this country.
“In addition to continuing to allow companies to maintain their operations through coordination with local experts and authorities, as well as international cooperation, this is seen as one of the strategies that brings many benefits.” benefits for companies “- said 3M Vietnam.
Matthieu Francois, associate at McKinsey & Company Vietnam, said that companies can find potential opportunities by investing in key supporting factors to boost productivity, such as retraining the workforce to increase productivity and implementing Industry 4.0.
Georonimo Basal (24 years old, employee of a distribution company, Filipino): The Philippines’ economic health is problematic
You don’t have to look at the numbers to feel like the health of the economy is in trouble. My sister, who just graduated from college last summer, didn’t get a chance to get her first full-time job. Each door is very narrow for young people who want to enter the job market.
The epidemic was unpredictable and a number of companies closed, making it even more difficult to apply for an already difficult job. The outbreak in the Philippines was partly due to poor implementation of social segregation and lockdown policies. Meanwhile, tracking, testing, and treatment haven’t improved much.
Compared to the timely measures taken by other countries in the region such as Vietnam or Thailand, the Philippines seems to show a lot of confusion in prioritizing between economic recovery on the other and economic recovery on the other. medical crisis. Therefore, instead of achieving the “double objective”, the Philippine economy fell into decline while the case continued to increase.
Jhoana Garcés (27 years old, university professor, Filipinos): Increase adaptability, creativity.
Although we tried not to fire anyone, including the cleaning worker, who was not working when the curriculum had changed online, new positions were prohibited from opening due to the current situation at the school. The financial pressure is quite severe while plans to increase wages are delayed.
In addition, the national budget of the Philippine Ministry of Science and Technology (DOST) has been cut between the current situation of COVID-19 and major natural disasters.
Such an uncertain and vulnerable world will need more adaptable and creative people. Therefore, strengthening adaptability is the most essential skill that I take out for myself after the challenges of 2020.
Tan Kai Ren (working in hospitality and tourism, Malaysian): Government must pay more attention to digital transformation
Now is the time for people and governments to pay more attention to digital transformation and green growth in the wake of the effects and losses caused by the pandemic.
GDP is just one link among many factors that assess the prosperity of a country. These tough times give us a chance to see what really matters.
With the vaccine in its final testing stages, it is time for the government to share its focus on enhancing people’s digital skills and protecting the environment to enhance economic resilience and ensure recovery. comprehensive recovery.
The ADB adjusts Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2020 to 2.3%.
