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The Biden administration (right) is expected to continue Xi’s confrontation with China in 2021 – Photo: NIKKEI ASIA
The world says goodbye to 2020 with unhappy experiences about the situation of the disease caused by the new coronavirus (COVID-19). International media are predicting that the pandemic will continue to have a profound effect on the global economic, social and political landscape. This will be the factor that makes countries consider foreign policy, which is inherently affected by competition between the two great powers.
Wait a step by Mr. Biden
During the term of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, tensions between the United States and China intensified with public demonstrations during the trade war, the arrest of the chief financial officer of Huawei or the United States. send the message of rejection of China’s claims in the South China Sea to the United Nations.
In other words, the competition between the United States and China appears in almost every field, from economics, politics and the military to the 5G technology race. With economic power and influence, the movement in the policies of the United States and China, as well as the competition of the two sides, will be the focus of international attention.
The first hot spot to attract public opinion will be the administration of President-elect Joe Biden. Many people believe that Biden will reverse Trump’s bold national interests, reverting to an image of the United States closer to its ally and to the international community.
In an analysis on December 21, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a think tank based in New York (USA), said that Biden could quickly return to his commitments on the subject. health and environmental issues such as the Paris Agreement on climate change or the World Health Organization. Meanwhile, issues like the trade war with China will be put on hold.
The CFR argues that Trump’s tough action gave Biden some advantages over China, but the Biden administration will have to focus more on solving the country’s political and social situation, as well as “sharing fire” over other critical points such as the nuclear situation in North Korea and Iran.
Consequently, observers will also focus on China’s behavior in 2021. In the past, Beijing has shown no tolerance in foreign disputes when a number of controversies and conflicts involve the country: Hong Kong protests, Taiwan problems, border tensions. with India, controversy over a viral investigation with Australia, illegal claims in the South China Sea and trade war with the United States. CFR believes the focus will be on how China is dealing with the rest.
New order
The confrontation between the United States and China contributed significantly to the politics of the rest. Therefore, the year 2021 is also expected to witness a change in international relations and order.
After the official Brexit, the UK launched signals promoting the relationship and alternative markets. The UK has reached out to Asia, and Southeast Asia in particular, through the signing of a free trade agreement with Vietnam, as well as its intention to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. (CPTPP).
Similarly, many studies show that Brexit and competition between the United States and China are factors that promote the EU to “pivot” towards Asia.
“Free trade will continue, it only excludes the administration of the United States. The main partners of the United States seek to diversify trade relations by intensifying negotiations with countries in an effort to secure the market.” New export market, which is currently subject to or threatened by a series of US tariffs. The Vietnam-EU Trade Agreement is an example “- Mr. Steven Okun, Senior Adviser of Strategic Consulting International McLarty Associates, told Tuoi Tre.
Additionally, both the UK and the EU promote a political and security presence in Asia. Britain, France and Germany have publicly expressed their opposition to China’s claims about the South China Sea.
5 hot spots
1: 5G war
China said on December 28 that it would build an additional 600,000 5G transmitters by 2021. However, Beijing will face a major challenge in developing this next-generation network, amid the administration of US President Donald. Trump has viewed major Chinese telcos like Huawei and ZTE as potential cybersecurity threats and lobbied allies to “boycott” infrastructure supply contracts.
2: East Sea
In 2020, the situation in the East Sea attracts a lot of attention from the “war of tickets”. Western countries have joined in China’s refusal of the United Nations’ claims. In 2021, the negotiation of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) will continue and will be seen as one of the effective dispute resolution solutions.
3: Environment and climate change
Pressure on governments on environmental issues has increased significantly in recent years. The EU appears to be more concerned with the environment and climate change and will likely continue to “insert” environmental provisions into any of its agreements with a partner.
4: The nuclear situation
Observers say that North Korean President Kim Jong Un will soon seek to remind the Biden administration of the unfinished nuclear deal. Similarly, Iran’s nuclear program as well as the nuclear deal (JCPOA) also face a moment of rebirth or total collapse.
5: Elections
In 2021 there are many important and typical elections in Germany. It will be the moment when the Germans enter their first election in 16 years without Chancellor Angela Merkel. For observers in favor of multilateralism, this election will be the answer to the question of whether far-right parties and nationalism dominate.
