Is the massive growth of the PLAN about to slow down? | World

11/14/2020 World



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In a report released by the China Maritime Research Institute at the US Naval War College on November 13, expert Christopher Carlson assessed that the Chinese Navy is getting stronger. After more than a decade, Beijing has stepped up its naval modernization, the current Chinese fleet is the largest in the world in terms of the number of warships, totaling 360 ships, according to Carlson.

World leader in number of warships

Meanwhile, the 2020 annual report from the US Department of Defense states that China has the largest naval force in the world, with a total of 350 warships and submarines, compared to 293 US ships. And Russia. about 280 ships.

“Of course, the number of warships is not the only measure of naval strength. Most American warships are larger in size and armed with much more powerful and sophisticated weapons than Chinese warships, even if the number of American ships is smaller, “Carlson noted.

“Over the past 11 years, China has made significant progress in shipbuilding and maintenance capacity with a total of almost 211 million hours of work. This is about five times higher than the previous 11-year period. The remarkable step forward is in 2011, when China produced Type 052C / D and Type 056 frigates, and in 2015 the second aircraft carrier, the Shandong, was built, ”according to Mr. Carlson’s report.

Is the massive growth of the PLAN about to decline? - Photo 1

Type 022 missile vessel of the Chinese Navy during exercises in the East China Sea in 2018

Rick Joe China Magazine Expert The diplomat By the early 2030s, China was predicted to possess 4 aircraft carriers (vs. 2 existing ones), 20 Type 055 cruisers (vs. 8), 40 Type 052D / E destroyers (up from 25 aircraft) and 50 Type 054A frigates. / B (up to 31).

Withdrawing from 2030?

However, it is difficult for China to maintain the speed of shipbuilding. “To achieve Joe’s proposed force structure, China will have to increase its working hours by 93%, essentially doubling its human resources. This is a significant increase, requiring an increase in the budget, which will be provided by the Chinese economy, which is growing at a much slower rate than in previous periods in the context of labor costs. it keeps increasing, ”Carlson said.

“That doesn’t take into account the burden China faces in maintaining such large fleets,” added Carlson. This load has increased since 2028, when types 052C, 054A and 056 were due to be overhauled mid-service.

Several other analysts have also predicted that the PLAN’s massive modernization rate will slow. In a speech delivered to the United States Congress and China Congressional Economic and Security Assessment Committee of the United States Congress a few years ago, Andrew Erickson, an analyst at the United States Naval War College, once said: “The Chinese model of unsustainable economic development ”.

“In the early 2030s, China will have the highest proportion of people over 65 in the world. An aging society becomes a burden on the economy, making it difficult for the Chinese government to increase its defense spending budget and sustain economic growth, ”according to Erickson’s prediction.

If Carlson and Erickson’s predictions are correct, the combination of an aging population, slowing economic growth, and rising fleet maintenance costs could roll back the PLAN’s modernization program. .




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