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The Nagorno-Karabakh peace agreement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan was seen as a diplomatic victory for Russia, turning the confusion that would result in the loss of participants into the prospect of mutual benefits. . The key now will be to maintain this agreement while Armenia “bit” its wounds and Azerbaijan triumphantly won.
Armenia was defeated, Russia fell into a “total loss” situation
On the morning of September 11, things were not looking good for Russia’s position in the South Caucasus. Within weeks, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out in the separatist province of Nagorno-Karabakh.
From left to right: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Photo: REUTERS / SPUTNIK
Like Russia, Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which automatically makes it an effective ally of Russia. Yet Armenia is losing the war and losing miserably.
On November 8, Azerbaijani forces dealt a severe blow to Armenian forces when they captured the important city of Shusha in southern Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azerbaijani army is said to be approaching the city of Stepanakert, the capital of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian soldiers are losing their morale, while complete victory is approaching Azerbaijan.
Although it is not a catastrophe, the consequences of the victory on the Azerbaijani side can hardly be described as positive for Russian foreign policy. From the beginning, this undermined Russia as an ally of Armenia.
Second, Azerbaijan’s victory risks setting a dangerous precedent for other countries that also have separatist zones near Russia, such as Georgia and Ukraine. Azerbaijan set such a precedent that it could encourage other countries to believe that their problems could be similarly solved by military means.
Therefore, the complete defeat of Armenia in this war did not favor Russia. However, Russia is also not interested in having weakened relations with Azerbaijan, much less in waging war with it. Therefore, it was not an option for Russia to provide direct support to Armenia to fight Azerbaijan.
Even acting as a mediator Russia does not appear to be successful, as Azerbaijan essentially has no need for reconciliation. It seems that Russia is now stuck in a “total loss” situation.
Armistice between Armenia and Azerbaijan, trilateral benefits
And then suddenly, on the morning of September 11, everything changed. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he had reached an agreement with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to end the war.
Prime Minister Armenia Nikol Pashinyan has stated that the capital, Stepanakert of Nagorno-Karabakh, will be captured by Azerbaijani forces if there is no peace agreement. Photo: Stanislav Krasilnikov / TASS
It is clear why the Armenians agreed, as the current military situation leaves them with almost no option. As for the reason why Azerbaijan accepted the armistice is not entirely clear, as they could gain more by continuing to fight. However, the terms of the agreement were so beneficial that it seemed the Azerbaijanis were too good to be ignored.
Before the recent fighting broke out, almost the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region was outside of Azerbaijan’s control, while Armenia controlled seven adjacent Azerbaijani provinces.
During the war, Azerbaijan regained the southern Karabakh region and four of the seven mentioned regions. Under the terms of the agreement, each party would control its current positions, but by December 1, Armenia had to return to Azerbaijan the three still occupied districts: Lachin, Kalbajar and Agdam.
In fact, this agreement ensured that Azerbaijan would regain all of its territory, except for the northern part of Nagorno-Karabakh. In this way, it can be seen as a great victory for Azerbaijan.
By closing the armistice agreement, Russia had saved Karabakh from being completely occupied by Azerbaijan, at least for now. In this way, Russia could claim that it did everything possible to protect the Armenian people. By persuading Azerbaijan to allow Russian peacekeepers to enter the region, Moscow is also ensuring its central role in any final reconciliation on this matter.
Russia’s peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh will have an initial duration of five years and will be automatically renewed for another five years if it is before the six-month period if Armenia or Azerbaijan do not object.
However, if until then the final situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is not resolved, one can imagine the possibility that the Azeri will ask the Russians to leave and then quickly resolve the problem by arguing military law.
(PLO) – Under the armistice agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia will deploy almost 2,000 peacekeepers in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and will remain here for five years.
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