Can President Trump ‘play’ a lot with China before leaving the White House?

With very little indication that Trump will quietly leave the White House after losing his election, experts and former US officials see a growing risk that he may take last-minute measures to boost preferences. hands, and the hand tied to his successor.

Analysts say that if Trump decides to resonate before leaving the White House, the focus may be on foreign policy, especially the tools he can deploy quickly and without difficulty. shy. These include executive orders, regulatory bodies, or appointment of positions without Senate approval, or the transfer of political appointments to difficult-to-replace public servants.

The South China Morning Post quoted experts as saying that China could be on the radar and be a specific target, as Trump repeatedly blamed Beijing for the pandemic that swept through the US economy. down and ruined his reelection prospects.

The director of China Moon Strategies, who is also a former National Security Council official, Jeff Moon, who sees a high possibility of the Trump administration’s last-minute sanctions measures in Beijing, asked:

“Mr. Trump once promised to punish China for Covid-19, so the question is what does this mean.”

But one way may worsen already bleak relations between the United States and China and undermine any efforts by the Biden administration to improve bilateral cooperation on global health and environmental issues. , may be related to the Taiwan problem. Trump’s options may include sending another cabinet member to Taipei, strengthening the military relationship between the United States and Taiwan, and announcing talks toward a free trade deal.

Bonnie Glaser, China Power Project Manager at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), commented: “Overall, this is true. They are trying to nail down the most irreversible policies out there. It may be in China, Iran or wherever. “

Human rights will be another easy target. In addition to taking a potentially explosive step by accusing China of “genocide” over the mass detention of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, Trump could block the visas of many Chinese officials or cause problems by ordering American athletes not to attend the Olympic Games in Winter in Beijing in 2022.

While these executive orders are not legally binding and can easily be reversed, they could make it harder for the next Biden administration amid fears of lifting them. will make Biden look smooth. The swift reversal of decisions also undermines America’s already compromised credibility as an ally and as a rival.

Adding to this grim outlook are mounting concerns about US policy and concerns amid Beijing’s expansion into the South China Sea, which deters India, Japan and Southeast Asian nations, and toughens. strict control with Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

According to the Pew Research Center, 73% of Americans have a negative view of China, 13% more than last year and 20% more than in 2017 when Trump took office.

“All of this makes the offer of cooperation with China more difficult to win over,” said Thomas Duesterberg, a fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former Commerce Department official.

“It’s clear that Republicans will criticize Biden for being soft on China and communism,” Christopher Miller, associate professor of international history at Tufts University’s Fletcher College of Law and Foreign Affairs, told SCMP.

Thomas Duesterberg also noted: Trump’s other options include additional sanctions against Chinese state-owned companies, further restricting the export of “dual-use” goods for military and civilian purposes, and prohibiting further applications. Use China after TikTok and WeChat campaigns, or block all semiconductor sales to technology corporation Huawei beyond use for 5G networks. And Washington could also claim China as a currency manipulator, subjecting it to punitive tariffs.

Even without disturbing last-minute moves, Biden’s impending cabinet will face a bolder Beijing. Sarah Kreps, a professor of government and law at Cornell University, said: “The power of China has increased dramatically in the past four years.” So I hope Biden’s policies make some sense. similar to the Trump administration. “

SCMP quoted Zack Cooper, a researcher at the conservative American Enterprise Institute and a former official in the George W. Bush administration: “It would be politically difficult to just remove a single tax.” The question is, what can you ask Beijing to do? quickly and produce real results. “

The settlement of the hundreds of millions of dollars in import duties imposed during the trade war could also be a prerequisite for restoring relations with Beijing.

One such measure could be the deregulation of Article 232 on steel and aluminum tariffs, which was imposed for national security reasons, analysts say. This could be justified as necessary to mend necessary relationships with long-standing allies in Europe and Asia to counter pressure from Beijing.

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), an outgoing cabinet often has last minute administrative changes, a method known as “midnight law.” Trump has repeatedly attacked the “underground government,” raising fears that it may redouble its efforts to sabotage government agencies.

“I am concerned about the destruction of many documents in the National Security Council and the State Department, which is causing the next cabinet to try to understand what the previous agreements were and what was being done,” Green said. talk to.

Yet veterans in Washington believe infighting could hamper Trump’s attempts to punish China and Biden.

Some ministers may continue to support a hard line against Beijing. The State Department may try to refuse to grant visas to senior Chinese officials; The Department of Defense and Commerce could encourage more export restrictions; and the Ministry of Justice could charge more Chinese students and scientists, for example. But such actions may face opposition from the Treasury Department and the Office of the US Trade Representative, who want to protect what they see as a notable achievement: the US-China trade deal. First.

Even Trump can have conflicting agendas.

“Within the Trump administration, there will be tension between hawks targeting China who want to tie up the impending Biden team and that of the Trump family to maintain good relations with China,” Green said. Beijing to ensure China’s future investment and business smoothly in the country. “

Read more about the relationship between the United States and China here.