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Charts updated at 0 am 5-11 am VN – Source: Fox News – Data: DUY LINH – Charts: TUAN ANH
The result that won the US presidential elections in 2020 is not available immediately after the official voting date as in 2016, but it still has to wait a while. And that date has yet to be determined.
Election “week”
Once again, Trump’s election results in many states performed much better than pre-election polls, but Biden still shows that his probability of winning remains high, albeit fairly close, at least for a few more days.
However, the battlefield states in the Rust Belt region like Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes) that brought Trump to the White House four years ago are now. it is still a hot spot when the difference between the two candidates is quite small.
The heart of the tension revolved around the history of the postal ballot in this election.
It may take Americans a few more days to know exactly who will be the winner of the 2020 US presidential election.
One major reason is that the COVID-19 pandemic caused large numbers of voters to vote early or by mail to avoid overcrowding in constituencies.
For the first time in more than a century, a record number of more than 100 million American voters voted before Election Day compared to approximately 58 million early votes in 2016. More than 60 million mail-in ballots, many Las Ballots are still on their way to the polling place.
Therefore, this year the concept of “Election Day” is no longer accurate, but rather “Election Week”, as election officials take longer to count postal ballots. because they need more steps than before, such as the need to verify the identity of the voter by comparing the voter’s signature on the envelope and in the register.
Therefore, the prospective candidate is likely to lose their breath when the large number of votes mailed in the next time is counted.
The rules for counting votes are at the discretion of the states. The states themselves also have different rules about when and how the postal ballot is counted. Therefore, there will be many time discrepancies between the results.
In Florida, advance postal ballots can be counted up to 22 days before the election. The states of Battlefield Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin do not allow postal counting before Election Day 3-11.
In terms of time to receive ballots, states are still under pressure, such as North Carolina or Pennsylvania, that acceptance of ballots by mail can be postmarked on Election Day, but later. The state of Pennsylvania allows ballots to arrive 3 days late.
As a result, the expected counting period could take several weeks for employees to statistically calculate the votes in these states. According to preliminary estimates, there are still hundreds of thousands of mail ballots that have not been counted in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
And … legal war
Even if the mail-in ballot would put Biden ahead of Trump in key battlefield states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in the coming days, it doesn’t mean the election will end soon.
The two candidates will enter a legal battle in the federal supreme court over the legality of the postal ballots. Both parties have taken this step into account.
Jen O’Malley Dillion, Biden’s campaign manager, said the Democratic Party’s legal team was “ready to go against the effort” to prevent Republican votes from being counted in court. .
It is not excluded that the race to the White House in 2020 will not be decided at the polls but in court. This legal battle for the presidential elections has been long before both parties.
Perhaps the two sides will not forget the Supreme Court’s decision to recount in Florida in the presidential election between the two presidential candidates Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000.
Last month, Trump opposed voting by mail, saying it would encourage fraud.
But the problem is different when the majority of Democratic voters prefer this form of vote by mail, and that is why Trump fears that a large number of votes by mail could change the balance of the election. .
Democrats also have a legal team that goes to court that forces states to extend the legal deadline for receiving ballots by mail.
The Supreme Court once rejected Trump’s legal team’s request when it tried to prevent Pennsylvania from extending the time to receive the ballot by mail to three days after Election Day 3-11.
However, Trump’s willingness to again ask the Supreme Court to stop counting votes sent by mail when the battling states are most likely to turn green (the color of the Democrats) is not excluded. when a large number of votes come in.
“We are ready to go to the Supreme Court” to end the vote count, Trump declared. The political game will last long. However, things would end if Biden strayed far enough from the popular vote in battle states.
Powerful force of lawyers
Republican National Committee Chief Counsel Justin Riemer told The Associated Press: “We worked on the campaign strategy of preparing the recount, Election Day activities and even litigation strategy.”
Biden’s side also includes hundreds of attorneys led by Walter Dellinger, who served as attorney general under President Clinton, and Donald Verrilli, attorney general on the case under Obama.
These are the attorneys who represent the Democratic Party administration in trials or disputes before the Supreme Court. That proves that Biden’s side is ready to bring its most seasoned attorneys to the Supreme Court.
Dr. NGUYEN THANH TRUNG (Director of the International Research Center, University of Social Sciences and Humanities, UNV HCMC)
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