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Although the outcome of winning the US presidential election is unknown, each presidential candidate has a different approach to foreign policy, including dealing with China.
In the recent online discussion, some experts make forecasts on US-China relations with two scenarios based on the results of the 2020 US presidential election.
China is doing it too
Mr. Murray Hiebert, Senior Expert on Southeast Asia, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, USA): The problem with former Vice President Biden was that the United States had to control the Covid-19 pandemic, restore the economy, heal ethnic relations and solve problems in the judicial and penal systems. There is also a significant gap in the heart of America: division. So Mr. Biden has great things to do.
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| Senior CSIS Specialist Southeast Asia Murray Hiebert |
I think that opinions in the United States about China have changed a lot. Americans are growing weary of seeing China seize and steal intellectual property rights and forcibly transfer technology. The United States can continue to meet the challenges posed by China and then witness aggressive acts by China at sea, such as in the South China Sea.
Now both political parties in the United States agree that China is doing it too. Either way, Biden seemed less adamant. It may lower some of the tariffs slightly, but it will actually put more pressure on China to cooperate in the economy and in broader fields. And Mr. Biden may want to cooperate with China on other issues like climate change, Iran’s nuclear power …
However, I and many people in the United States hope that he will act and be able to act sensibly before China on these issues without compromise, like the climate change issues with the South China Sea or something else. anything else. That is not acceptable.
The competition continues
Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh: Now we turn to the 2020 US presidential elections and the China factor.
I believe that not only the Donald Trump administration, but also the United States in general, including the two main political parties in this country, recognize a new China and a new form of resurgence in this Asian nation.
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| Ambassador Pham Quang Vinh |
As Mr. Murray mentioned, China is now viewed differently in America. Therefore, I can say that the competition between the two parties will continue if Trump is re-elected for a second term or if the United States has a new president, Mr. Biden.
Will competition between the two powers intensify after the November vote? I think that at this time of year, the competition between the United States and China is very, very different. There are many factors that directly influence this, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the upcoming presidential elections, and many difficulties within the United States. So the competition between the United States and China is emerging in a different way.
So even with Trump’s re-election, I think the competition will continue to increase. Trump will remain as he is now, but with some restraint in his words. In the event that Mr. Biden is elected president, I agree with academic Murray Hilbert, Mr. Biden will revert to a more traditional approach to control of the great powers.
Competition will continue, but at the same time there are coherent channels, both in economic terms and in other global issues such as the Middle East or the environment. A key point regarding Biden is that he will most likely return to multilateralism and networking with allies and partners. It also appears that Hilbert has mentioned competition and cohesion, but does not compromise on crucial issues, such as the South China Sea.
I believe that with other countries, including Vietnam, facing the impending presidential election in the US, there are now many platforms to continue to be actively involved in the region. The second problem is that competition with China will continue to exist there, but it will continue to be controlled in one way or another, completely different under Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump.
However, that competition would not develop into the same kind of Cold War that occurred between the United States and the Soviet Union. Thus, there is still room for smaller countries to become partners with both the United States and China. At the same time, there is also room for Vietnam and other countries in the region to cooperate with other key players such as Japan, India and Australia. And ASEAN still plays a role in it.
Continuity instead of change
Dr. Le Hong Hiep, Institute for Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS, Singapore): I believe that, as the previous two speakers have said, domestic issues will be a key priority for the new president of the United States, be it Mr. Biden or Trump.
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| Dr. Le Hong Hiep |
In foreign policy, a continuation is more likely than a change. As you know, the United States has a consensus on China’s policy, so with Biden, even if it will try to “raise its head” on China on certain issues like the environment, but I did not think that Washington would change that area of cooperation for other crucial interests or the issue of the South China Sea.
I think there are pros and cons in case Trump wins another four-year term or vice versa, Biden becomes head of the White House. I think they both seem to be tough on China, which is a statement that most people agree with.
Thai An – Quynh Anh
Why is the whole world heading to the American elections?
Strolling through newspapers, social media, and television around the world, we will be surprised to see the media inundated with news and commentary on the US presidential election.
