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President Donald Trump (right) and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden Photo: AFP
More than 7.5 billion people around the world will witness an electoral event that has the greatest impact in the world, possibly turning the United States and the world into a major crossroads, by President Donald Trump and the candidate party. Democrat Joe Biden has mostly conflicting views on many important topics: the COVID-19 pandemic, health, immigration, and foreign policy.
Before G, from the United States, experts with knowledge of American politics exchanged views with Tuoi Tre on the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate and predicted post-election US foreign policy.
* Mr. TO HOANG (Syracuse University, USA):
“Referendum” on Trump’s Legacy
This vote is not simply a regular election, but will be a “referendum” on the last four years of President Trump.
The American economy, as many Democrats also admit, is an undeniable achievement in President Trump’s first term, although it may not be as “unprecedented” as in many campaign statements. run for it.
Trump’s commitments to tax cuts and procedures helped the economy rebound, at least until COVID-19 broke out. Whoever wins, many of Trump’s effective economic policies will certainly continue.
Contrary to economic performance, in the decades after the Vietnam War, American society has never been so deeply divided. This election for many American voters is not simply a choice between Trump or Biden, but also a battle between those who “support Trump” and “against Trump.”
Although a political divide has persisted throughout American history, it has rarely been raised to a high level like this election.
With the American political system, even for a four-year stint in the White House, Trump has made his mark on the American judiciary more than any Democratic or Republican president in nearly 50 years. .
In just 4 years, with the appointment of 3 judges to the United States Supreme Court for life (after President Nixon) and 53 justices in appellate courts at all levels (roughly the equivalent of 8 years of former President Obama), the American judicial system will be on the right track for many years, although Biden is unlikely to change.
In foreign affairs, unlike his predecessors, Trump has ignored customary foreign doctrines by putting “America first” in all of America’s international relations. It is not afraid of clashing with allies like NATO, shaking hands with rivals like Russia, breaking existing agreements like with Iran, creating new enemies like China.
His “America First” doctrine hit what many American voters expected, but it also raised questions about America’s role in the world.
Trump’s appearance in American politics also marks the emergence of a new model of populist leadership. Unlike the “classical leaders” of the past, leaders like Trump are less subject to the usual rule and behave instinctively and according to what the voters want. This new model of leadership will not simply disappear, whether or not Trump continues to sit in the White House.
Last and foremost, there’s the reversal of American society and politics over the past four years, for better or for worse. These changes will become a “new normal” if Trump wins or they will return to the “old state” in case Biden wins the election on 3-11.
* Mr. TRAN DUC CANH (Former Director of Human Resources Training and Development of Massachusetts, USA):
Trump is hard to win
In essence, this year the focus of the two parties is only for the battle states. The rest of the states leaned toward being either Democrats (green) or Republicans (red). For example, California has 55 voters who lean toward democracy and Alabama has 9 voters who lean toward the Republic.
For nearly four years as president, American voters have been pretty clear about President Trump. As a controversial figure in the United States and the world, the line between his support and opposition is unprecedented.
The poll shows that the voters who support him are mostly working class, rural people, non-college graduates, white, elderly, conservative people … most of them are unhappy with the federal government. year.
Number against Mr. Trump’s section great is the intellectual world, the white level ethnic minorities (except of Vietnamese origin). Even many Republican voters believe that it is now the “Trump party”, not a traditional Republican, so they turn to support Biden.
According to some polls, the number of voters who voted before 3-11 in favor of democracy. Trump’s strength now is having loyal voters, and the question is whether these numbers will skyrocket at the last minute. I think this will increase the number of voters on November 3.
* TS SATORU NAGAO (Hudson Institute, USA):
Need for a follow-up policy with China
The influence of the US elections will be reflected in the foreign policy of this country. Especially if the United States changes its policy towards China, this is what will affect the world.
The Trump administration’s policy is fiercely opposed to China. As a result, many countries have shaped their policies by following the American stance.
If the United States changes government and its policies change, what should countries and territories like Israel, Saudi Arabia, India, Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia do?
If Trump wins the election, the current foreign policy is expected to continue, the countries mentioned do not need to change. If Biden wins and decides to do the same, those countries must reform their policies.
Currently, Mr. Biden has not officially announced the China policy. That shows that his policy towards China has yet to be fixed. So if Mr. Biden wins the election, his government will face a “panic” at first.
But at the same time, China has caught up with the United States in military modernization, economic development, and investment in technology. In 2018, China reached 25% of its defense budget compared to the US, 40% of the US GDP, and 80% of the US investment and development budget during the pandemic. of COVID-19, this gap is likely to have narrowed.
If Biden wins the election, he will face that situation and must choose to compete with China for a long time. His long-term competitive goal of China policy bears many similarities to the Trump administration, because both governments will face the same competitor, China.
Workers installed protective barriers at the La Perla store in Beverly Hills, California to prevent violence from occurring after the election results – Photo: AFP
* Mr. VO HAVE HONG (associate professor, University of Kansas, USA):
Advantages and disadvantages of Mr. Trump
If only based on an exploration, it is clear that Mr. Biden is in the lead, although the distance is not too great. Furthermore, Trump recently closed the gap.
This makes predicting the outcome even more difficult. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton was always ahead of Trump in the polls, but she still failed.
Another point that makes the situation even more unpredictable is that five days before the election, early voting statistics in some states like Texas have broken records.
Also, in other states like Florida, Nevada or Iowa, the number of Democratic voters initially outnumbered Republican voters at first, but getting closer to Election Day, the number of Republican voters is increasing rapidly. .
However, Mr. Biden has many advantages over Mrs. Clinton four years ago. The first point is on the issue of gender, when the United States still does not seem ready for a president, and the next is that Biden does not have as many black marks on his record as Clinton.
Also, the US situation before the elections is not favorable for President Trump either, especially the number of COVID-19 infections increased across the country. Pressure from the paralyzed economy, as well as an unapproved second stimulus package, could lead voters influenced by COVID-19 to use their votes to express their disappointment with the current government. responsibility.
Trump’s hopes can now be pinned on upbeat information about vaccines, policy toward China, or continue to emphasize the situation to make the situation brighter to attract voters.
Rather, Biden focuses on the “mistakes” of sitting administrations, such as COVID-19, as well as key Democratic Party health insurance, education and environmental issues.
The current state of the war shows that Trump can win dominance in Florida, Arizona or North Carolina; and Mr. Biden has high hopes for Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Why did Trump draw more supportive crowds than Biden?
