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With the support of the traditional states, Trump will win the 270 electoral votes to win if he conquers one of the three states on the battlefield.
David N. Bossie, deputy campaign manager for President Donald Trump in 2016 and served as a senior investigator on the Government Oversight and Reform Commission of the United States House of Representatives under the Bill Clinton administration, was given The Way to Win 270 electoral votes for the re-election of President Donald Trump this year will not be much different from the 2016 election season.
Bossie believes Trump will continue to win this year in Texas, Indiana and all the states that have traditionally supported the Republican side, helping him get his first 163 electoral votes. In 2016, his winning route passed through Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa. This year, this highway is still intact, adding two states, Georgia and Arizona.
Bossie’s statement is even more credible, when poll results released Oct. 31 by the Des Moines Register / Mediacom showed Trump was 7 percentage points ahead of his rival Joe Biden in Iowa, with the support being 48. % and 41%, respectively.
When he repeated his triumphs in these traditional states, with the support of Nebraska and the second Maine Congressional Area, where the president of the United States won in 2016, Trump was almost certain of his 260. electoral votes, only 10 less than the ” magic number “270.
President Donald Trump at an election event in Dubuque, Iowa, on November 1. Image: AP
The remaining 10 electoral votes are expected to be determined in the three battlefield states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump stunned 2016 when he became the first Republican candidate to win in Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1988. He is also the first Republican presidential candidate to win in Wisconsin since the former president. Ronlad Reagan was reelected in 1984.
Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes, while Michigan had 16 and Wisconsin 10. With the above scenario, you only need to win one of the three states to win the race this year, according to Bossie.
In support, the Trump campaign is also actively campaigning in Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire, states where it narrowly lost to Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“The lesson 2020 teaches us is that anything can happen. Therefore, it would be wise to do everything possible to defeat the opponent, as President Trump is doing with his campaign schedule. His strong choice,” Bossie wrote in an analysis on Fox News on October 31.
Biden is ahead of Trump in many national and state polls, but like Bossie, many experts say it is too early to talk about the Republican candidate’s failure at this point.
“He still has a clear winning path to re-election,” said Professor Wesley Widmaier, an American expert on international affairs at the Australian National University. “Pennsylvania is still undecided, so is Florida, and even Arizona is not sure in favor of Biden.”
Professor Widmaier added that President Trump’s supporters have the right to be optimistic about their candidate’s victory.
According to polls published two days before the election, Biden is ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. But Professor Widmaier says that the gaps in some major states are within the uncertainty of the survey, suggesting that Biden’s advantage may not be clear.
Most experts see the battlefield states Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona playing a decisive role in the elections. Prof Widmaier said the voting results in the “Florida Pans,” located in northwest Florida, where many voters who once supported President Barack Obama turned to Trump in 2016, could be an early sign of See Who wins again on the east coast of the United States.
“If we see voters in Florida Panic coming back to support Biden, that is information that makes a lot of sense,” he said, adding that “the polls should only be a model of reference.”
Professor Widmaier said that this year, new voters, America’s unprecedented level of enthusiasm for voting and voting by mail could be the “variables” affecting the accuracy of the polls.
Sharing the same opinion, Meghna Srinivas, a doctoral student at the Faculty of Social Sciences at Monash University in Australia, says the survey in the battlefield states shows that candidate Biden’s advantage is “very small.”
“Although Biden appears to be ahead, Trump still has a chance in these states,” he said.
Experts say the 2016 elections are clear proof of that claim. A series of polls four years ago showed that Hillary had an overwhelming advantage over the Republican candidate, but as a result, Trump became the 45th president of the United States.
Srinivas argued that the 2016 polls underestimated supporters of President Trump’s “anonymity.” She believes that the Biden campaign and other Democrats still have reason to be concerned about this year’s election results, because everything “cannot be predicted until the end of the election.”
More than 90 million Americans have voted earlier this year so far, far surpassing the 58 million in 2016. Many experts say the unpredictability and variables of the American elections may still help President Trump again. scripted win in 2016.
Thanh tam (According to the Fox News, 9News)
