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The former commander of the Philippine Armed Forces warned that Beijing could try to control some of its sea routes if a conflict arises between China and the United States.
US warships patrolled the South China Sea in April (Photo: SCMP)
In an online forum held last week, General Emmanuel Bautista, a former commander of the Philippine Armed Forces, said that the strategic position of the Philippines, with its routes connecting the South China Sea with the Pacific, has disappeared. this country has become a place with “key terrain”.
Mr. Bautista pointed out the strategic routes that include the Bashi Canal, located next to the Batanes and Babuyan islands near Taiwan, the Mindoro Strait, Cebu, Balabac, San Bernardino and Surigao.
“If you want to dominate the South China Sea, you need to control these crucial points,” said General Bautista, who served in the army for 30 years.
According to General Bautista, Beijing is becoming increasingly aggressive, not only in the South China Sea, but also on the border with India, where soldiers from the two countries have been fighting since June.
“Territorial disputes in the Indo-Pacific are hot spots that can spark conflict between the United States and China. Assuming things get out of control and a war starts, China will try to control the Philippines, ”said General Bautista, former commander of the National Special Forces in the Western Philippine Sea.
General Bautista said that if there was a conflict between the two superpowers, both China and the United States would seek to control the Philippines. The United States has a defense treaty with the Philippines in which the parties agree to help each other in the event of an attack on the other.
“Chinese militarization (the islands) and the construction of bases on the islands are now becoming a direct threat. From these bases, China can launch rockets and deploy fighter jets to our main island in a matter of minutes, ”said the retired Philippine general.
According to the ReutersPhilippine officials have accused Chinese military forces of increasing radio warnings from Philippine air patrol planes around artificial islands protected by Chinese missiles.
General Bautista’s comments showed growing concern among Philippine military officials. Associated Rappler On October 13, he summoned Deputy Admiral, Philippine Navy Commander Giovanni Carlo Bacordo, who revealed a proposal to equip Filipino fishermen with weapons and deploy this force as a “maritime militia” to deal with China’s Marine Militia.
Consequently, the Philippines plans to send 240 marine militiamen to the South China Sea to patrol and protect fishermen from “harassment” by China, as well as conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions. to gather useful information for the Philippine Army.
However, General Bautista said he only wanted to encourage Filipino fishermen to “fish and do their work in Philippine waters” with the support of the Philippine Coast Guard.
Chinese calculations
Chinese Coast Guard ships and Philippine ships are in the South China Sea. (Photo: AFP)
According to the SCMPWhen asked about the perspective put forward by General Bautista, defense analyst Collin Koh agreed with the view that if conflict did break out, the Chinese military would seek to control vital sea lanes. Especially the Bashi channel.
“If US forces were present in the Philippines at that time, they would most likely become targets of attack, or isolate and neutralize themselves, so they could not participate in the war,” Mr. Koh said.
“I predict that at least the Chinese military will seek to control the strategic shipping lanes around the Philippines because it is a necessary way to launch military operations against the United States,” Koh said.
When looking at the map, the Philippines is part of the “First Island Chain (FIC),” which includes Japan and Taiwan, said Koh, a research expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“The FIC is basically the place where the US military has the densest force, and also the place where many US allies have established a natural shield against China,” said expert Koh.
However, even in the event of an attack, however, China does not necessarily have to control the whole of the Philippines or much of the country, Koh said. Instead, China could act in other ways, such as deploying its own air and naval forces to gain control of strategic shipping lanes without occupying key land facilities. , to drive off Philippine forces stationed near or directly at Scarborough Shoal before militarizing the bank, including destroying US military targets on Philippine soil.
China seized control of Scarborought Shoal from the Philippines after a tense confrontation at sea in 2012. The Philippines took the dispute to international arbitration the following year. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, the Netherlands, denied China’s unreasonable claims over most of the South China Sea, but so far Beijing has rejected this decision.
Also on the online forum, General Bautista warned about the activities of China’s “gray zone”. These are Beijing’s attempts to control strategic areas of the Philippines, but not a conflict setting.
“China has done many activities to reach the Philippines, such as the construction of airports and seaports. China is not only targeting Fuga Island, one of the important locations, but also building the Sangley Airport (right at the entrance to Manila Bay), ”warned Mr. Bautista.
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