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Riot protests breaking out in Philadelphia and candidate Joe Biden’s opposition to shale oil drilling in Pennsylvania could turn the tide, paving the way for President Trump to win the big vote. Electoral College in the context that the official presidential elections will take place just one week away.
Riot protests in Philadelphia
According to RealClearPolitics, candidate Joe Biden’s leadership rate in polls has dropped from a high of 10.2% on October 12 to 7.6% now. Biden will almost certainly win the popular vote, like Hillary Clinton in 2016, but President Trump’s advantage in the battle states of Pennsylvania and Florida could help him win the most electoral votes. tri.
President Trump is still at a disadvantage relative to his opponents, but elections can take place in unexpected directions. A closed election could require voting agencies to count tens of millions of ballots mailed. This could provoke long-term controversies and, at the same time, become a nightmare scenario for American politics and the financial market.
Law and order are the main themes of President Trump’s campaign. Middle-class voters in the United States watch with anxiety how the police have been unable to suppress violent protests and insecurity in dozens of American cities. 30 police officers were injured the night of Oct. 26 during a riot protest in Philadelphia after police shot and killed a black man carrying a knife. The police wounds were caused by protesters who used bricks and other weapons to attack them. This suggests that the police may have followed Democratic Mayor Jim Kenney’s instructions asking not to be harsh on the protesters.
Previously, a video released by the police showed Walter Wallace, a 27-year-old young man of color, holding a knife and running into the police officers when they asked him to put down the gun. However, Walter Wallace did not comply with the request and that forced two policemen to open fire. According to the attorney for the Wallace family, the man has a mental problem. Mayor Kenney said he watched video of the incident and “found some difficult questions to answer.”
For many Pennsylvania voters, the question arises as to why the police are not taking stronger action to restore order and protect themselves. Polls show that two-thirds of American voters say that ensuring public order is very important to them, although it is not known which candidate can do this job better.
During the debate last September, when it comes to racism, candidate Joe Biden said that what Trump is doing has hurt the community of color. Recalling the time of the murder of the black citizen George Floyd, Joe Biden stressed that many peaceful protests took place, but Trump responded by deploying security, using force and tear gas. Candidate Biden stressed the need to reform the police force and severely punish those involved in cases like George Floyd’s.
Biden’s big mistake
Another loophole for Joe Biden is opposing shale oil production in Pennsylvania, which was the most labor-intensive and most invested sector in the state after the expansion of the Marcellus Shale project. in the 2010s.
Biden has backed the “Green New Deal” proposed by the Democratic Party to create a carbon-free economy that calls for the halt of shale oil operations in many regions of the United States. and the phasing out of fossil fuels within 30 years.
During the campaign in Pennsylvania on October 26, President Trump emphasized: “Mr. Biden has confirmed the plan to cancel the entire US oil industry. The lack of mining means there is no work or energy for Pennsylvania homes. The risk for Biden is that voters may not be as concerned about protecting the environment, the Democrats’ top priority, as much as those close to them.
President Trump cannot afford to lose 20 of Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, where he has spent much of his campaigning efforts in recent months if he wants to get at least 270 electoral votes to win. Forida, Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina are too difficult to predict.
Pennsylvania played a key role in driving Trump’s victory in the 2016 election, and so is it, especially when it lags behind rivals in Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden is ahead of President Trump 9 percentage points in Michigan and 5.5 percentage points in Wisconsin, a poll showed.
Still, President Trump could still win a majority of the electoral votes without going to these two states, if he won in other battle states where the search was tight.
Analysts said that, so far, President Trump’s chances of reelection remain very slim. But if this changes because of events taking place in Philadelphia and because of Biden’s inconsistent views on shale oil drilling, then President Trump could get a second presidency. And this will again be confusing for opinion polls.
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