US elections: the next president faces the challenges of Taiwan

Is China preparing to invade Taiwan? This is a burning question that is hotly debated in many current Chinese forums. And this is also one of the main geopolitical concerns for the next president of the United States.

The situation heated up on October 13 when President Xi Jinping visited the naval base of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in Guangdong province and told his soldiers to “prepare for war.”

After that, some newspapers carried headlines that implied that China was about to invade Taiwan.

But that is not the case. However, there are many reasons why China’s experts are urgently discussing the future of Taiwan.

China and the United States have long contradicted each other over Taiwan. Beijing insists that the island of 23 million people belongs to China’s “inaccessible territory.”

Washington believes that any solution must be made peacefully.

For decades, the disagreement continued at a standstill. Until now.

There were several reasons why the status quo could not continue. The first is Mr. Xi Jinping.

“Xi Jinping wants to go back to Taiwan,” said Professor Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at the Institute for Asian and African Studies in London. “And Xi Jinping wants to take back Taiwan before handing over power to whoever comes to power next.”

Oriana Skylar Mastro, a Chinese military expert at Standord University, said she heard a wake-up call about Taiwan when Xi Jinping abolished the presidential term in 2018, practically if he allows it. serves as president for life.

“Suddenly, everything he said about Taiwan took on a new meaning,” he said. “The timeframe for which he had previously said he wanted to solve the Taiwan problem is now tied to his legitimacy and leadership.”

Professor Tsang said that Xi Jinping considered himself a prominent historical figure, on a mission to achieve what previous Chinese leaders, including Mao Zedong, failed to do.

“Deng Xiaoping cannot take back Taiwan,” explained the professor. “Not even Chairman Mao could stay with Taiwan. And if Xi Jinping took over Taiwan, he is not only bigger than Deng Xiaoping, but also Mao Zedong.”

Xi Jinping has publicly stated that the reunification of Taiwan is “an inevitable prerequisite for the great rebirth of the Chinese people.” The time to complete this “great revival” is 2019, the centenary of the communist revolution. 30 years left.

But there are also reasons to think that Xi wants to act before that deadline.

The first is that China will soon have the military capability to defeat the United States in a war against Taiwan.

“For the past 20 years, the big question that many have asked is, will the United States protect its allies and partners?” says Mastro, a military expert at Stanford. “It is a question of determination. Will the United States support Taiwan? But as the Chinese military becomes more advanced, this question has changed from whether the United States will do so to whether the United States can defend Taiwan.” ”

The transformation of the Chinese army from a low-tech “popular” force into a high-tech army was much faster than many predicted.

The speed and scale of the change were evident during the grand parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of National Day in Beijing on October 1 last year.

Among the familiar armored vehicles, artillery and rocket launchers, there are a number of impressive new weapon systems, including stealth planes and drones, and so-called “hypersonic surfers.” “These new systems are designed to target groups of aircraft carriers, if they want to intervene to protect Taiwan.

Fleet Captain James E. Faell was the director of the United States Naval Intelligence Agency for the United States Pacific Fleet until his retirement in 2015.

“I characterize what I call a decade of concerns,” he told me from his new job at the Geneva Security Policy Center, “and that was from 2020 to 2030, which I think is the most dangerous period, and former President Hu Jintao and President Xi Jinping ordered the PLA to be able to fight the Taiwanese army by 2020.

“So for the past 20 years they have ordered to develop the capacity and the potential to launch a military attack against Taiwan.”

China is also slowly testing America’s resolve in the South China Sea, to see how far China can go before the United States responds to threats to its allies.

According to Fleet Captain Fanell, the United States has repeatedly failed those tests, allowing China to control the Scarborough Shoal off the Philippines in 2012, then taking no action to prevent China from building a series. artificial islands in the South China Sea.

“What happened to the Scarborough Shoal from April to June 2012 was the biggest failure of American foreign policy since American helicopters took off from the roof of the American embassy in Saigon. 1975,” he said.

“It is a disaster and it really has a negative impact on the reputation of the United States in Asia when we do nothing to protect the Philippines.”

For China, reclaiming Taiwan doesn’t just mean reclaiming “lost territory.” Control of the island would allow Beijing to acquire what General Douglas MacArthur once called “an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Pacific.” Ms Mastro said that China’s victory over Taiwan will completely redesign the strategic map of Asia.

“If China had a war with Taiwan and won, not only would it agree with Taiwan, but it would fundamentally end the role of the United States, but a leader in Asia as we used to be. Know,” he explained. “So, from the Chinese perspective, there are many advantages.”

In Washington, both sides acknowledge that the Chinese threat to Taiwan is growing. In a clear indication for China, the Trump administration approved the sale of billions of dollars of weapons to Taiwan, including advanced air-to-surface missiles for the first time.

But it is not clear what the United States would do if they attacked Taiwan. Fleet Captain Fanell said it would be a mistake to miscalculate the capabilities of the US military.

Professor Tsang said that there are also lessons for Mr. Xi from the wars of the past. The United States, albeit late, supported South Korea and Kuwait. He said China should not underestimate the determination of the US military when provoked.

“The spirit of the American military is that of an army that hits, hits and hits,” he explained. “If China takes that into account, I think maybe they will be more cautious in their calculations and the risk of miscalculations will be reduced.”

If you add your anger and suspicions about Covid-19 to trade war issues, investigate Huawei, the closure of each other’s consulates and deportation of journalists, relations between Washington and Beijing. it is at its worst since the 1989 Tiananmen massacre.

Now there is a call to the next US president on both sides for the US to abandon its hostile stance and return to negotiations with China. But everyone I talk to agrees that old-fashioned negotiations have failed.

They said the next US president must find a new way to negotiate, more honestly, more frankly, and much clearer about his responsibilities and intentions toward Asian allies, including Taiwan. .