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The Economist forecasting model says that Biden firmly holds the possibility of winning the president of the United States when he wins the majority of the electoral and popular votes.
Electoral prediction model Economist, newspaper specializing in the American economy, announced On October 12, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden had a 91% chance of winning electoral votes, while President Donald Trump had only a 9% chance. Forecasts also suggest that Biden’s chances of winning a majority of the popular vote are up to 99%.
Biden is expected to get 347 electoral votes, surpassing the minimum of 270 to elect the president, while Trump is said to have won about 191 electoral votes.
These rates are based on a predictive model that simulates 20,000 possible electoral outcomes, with each situation built on voter turnout rates and different electoral errors.
Joe Biden, candidate for the presidency of the Democratic Party, speaking in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, on 8/31. Image: Reuters.
According to the predictive model, President Trump’s chance of winning is much lower than that of his Democratic rival, but that doesn’t mean he has no chance of winning. The scenario where no candidate gets 270 electoral votes to be elected is more than 1%.
Faced with the unfavorable forecast for Trump, supporters of the US president noted that many similar forecasts were made in 2016. Some forecasts at the time suggested that Trump has almost no chance of winning. with the Princeton Elections Association predicting that Clinton has a 99 percent chance of winning, while the Huffington Post also predicts that the Democratic presidential candidate has a 98 percent chance.
However, the final results showed that Trump unexpectedly won against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a greater number of electoral votes, despite losing the popular vote.
Five Thirty Eight survey page ABC News Given that Trump has a 13% chance of winning against Biden, about the 13.1% predicted by the site for Trump’s possible victory over Clinton on October 12, 2016.
Mai Lam (Follow Newsweek)
