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The clock is counting down for the US presidential election, while Joe Biden leads Donald Trump on many indicators.
Despite many predictions, one thing everyone agrees on is that it is hard to say in advance what the outcome will be.
A number of downsides, including criticism around tax returns, poor first presidential debate and President Trump’s health after contracting COVID-19, have led rival Joe Biden to extend the lead. top in polls.
Who is leading the way in American election polls?
Results from the Oct. 8 Real Clear Politics poll showed Donald Trump was 41.9%, nearly 10 points less than Joe Biden, 51.6%.
National polls on April 4 showed Donald Trump at 42.5% and Joe Biden at 50.6%.
The FiveThirtyEight poll on March 3 gave Joe Biden a 51% chance of winning the election, while Trump got just 41%, the biggest gap between the two in recent months.
In fact, Joe Biden has led Donald Trump in most national polls so far, by about 50%.
However, that’s not all bad news for Donald Trump. Their ratings seem more positive.
In June 2020, the president’s disapproval rate peaked at 56.2%, while the president’s support rate dropped to 41.2%.
However, in October 2020, the aforementioned rate reversed quite a bit, with an approval rate of 44.4% and a disapproval rate of 53.5% on July 7.
Betting Odds
Odds are also another indicator of who is likely to win the presidential election.
According to bookmakers including William Hill and the Betfair Exchange, after a presidential debate with Joe Biden, things were not looking too good for Donald Trump, as his opponent had a bigger bet.
However, the White House announcement that President Donald Trump had COVID-19 prompted bookmakers in the UK to stop their bets.
Do polls or probabilities help you know who will win the presidential election?
As seen in countless elections in the United States, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere, polls are not always correct.
In the United States, the president is elected indirectly. Each of the 50 states and Washington DC are assigned electoral numbers based on the number of representatives in Congress plus two senators.
Each state’s legislature determines how to elect voters. The most common method is the nomination of each state party district, and nominations are approved by the state legislature. Most states have laws that require voters to commit to vote for the party’s nominated presidential candidate.
Simply put, a voter who wants to vote for Donald Trump will actually vote for a group of voters nominated by the Republican branch of the state (and approved by the state legislature). .
With the exception of Nebraska and Maine, the candidate who gets the most votes in one state or in Washington, DC, wins all voters. In Nebraska and Maine, voters are chosen based on the percentage of votes their candidate receives.
The United States has a total of 538 voters. Each elector cast only one vote in the state legislature. The president is elected if he receives more than half of the electoral votes or 270 votes.
Are the electoral polls correct?
Even if a candidate is leading the national poll, this person is unlikely to win the election.
It can happen that an elected president has the majority of the electoral votes but does not obtain the majority of the popular vote. The 2016 elections are an example. Hillary Clinton was 3 million more people than Donald Trump. Trump won so narrowly that there were enough states to win more electoral votes than Clinton.
In the United States, voting is not mandatory. Based on past voting trends, American commentators call states that have traditionally voted for the Republican Party as red states. States that traditionally vote Democratic are known as green states.
Other states are called swing states due to their high competitiveness and can lean one way or the other. These states will be battlefield states in which each faction will attempt to build an alliance to win.
Recent battlefield polls haven’t looked good for Donald Trump, with Joe Biden leading the way in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three states where Donald Trump won by a very small margin. Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.
That said, anything could change in the coming weeks, which is why polls or other ways cannot tell who the next president of the United States will be.
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