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The Sino-Indian border clash could cause the two countries to accidentally slip into a war inadvertently, experts warn.
Over the past 45 years, a series of agreements, written and unwritten, have maintained an uneasy truce between China and India along the border on the eastern edge of the Himalayan Kashmir region. . But border movements between China and India and clashes in recent months have made the situation unpredictable, increasing the risk that a miscalculated side could have serious consequences.
“The actual situation is very dangerous and may be out of control,” LiveMint said, quoting Lt. Gen. DS Hooda, a former North Indian Army commander from 2014 to 2016. “Much will depend on whether the two sides can control volatility. and make sure it doesn’t spread to other areas. “
Chinese and Indian military commanders held several rounds of negotiations, but to no avail. In a sign that the talks are now turning to a political level, the Sino-Indian defense minister met on Wednesday in the Russian capital Moscow to try to end the impasse. This is the first high-level direct contact between the two sides since the clash broke out in the Ladakh area four months ago.
Last week, the world’s two most populous countries shared thousands of kilometers of disputed borders, accusing each other of provoking the latest provocations, which accuse soldiers of crossing into each other’s territory.
Tensions erupted in early May with a fight between soldiers. The situation escalated seriously in June when soldiers on both sides fought with sticks, kicks and fists, killing 20 Indian soldiers and wounding dozens. China reported no casualties.
Although he believes that neither side is seeking a full-blown war, “the real disaster” is a disruption of existing agreements and protocols, Hooda said.
Wang Lian, a professor of international relations at Peking University in Beijing, said the possibility of a public war is difficult as both sides show restraint in recent encounters. However, he also said that India is under pressure from within the country and has been encouraged by tougher measures from the United States towards China.
“I don’t think (India) can escalate the military conflict on a larger scale, but I think both sides are preparing something,” Wang said.
India and China share an indefinite 3,500 km border, known as the Line of Current Control (LAC), which runs from the Ladakh region in the north to the Indian state of Sikkim.
India and China fought a border war in 1962 in Ladakh and ended with a fragile armistice. Since then, the armies of both sides have patrolled and guarded the unspecified border area, following the protocols that the two countries implemented, including not using weapons with each other.
However, defense analyst Rahul Bedi said India changed the rules along the border after the deadly clash in June. He said that local commanders had been “released.” carry out adequate and adequate responses to any hostile action “by the Chinese military.
Members of India’s strategic community, including defense analysts and retired generals, say that the Chinese military is opening new fronts, deepening mistrust and perseverance. postpone retreat immediately before winter, when temperatures in the area can drop to minus 50 degrees Celsius.
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