Abe resigns, how will Japan and Asia be affected?



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Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo is a multilateralist who aims to promote a new international order based on law, CNN said.

Professor Paul Sracic, professor of East Asian affairs at Logos Group International, recently commented on CNN on the impact of Abe’s recent resignation.

Stability in East Asia

Despite some controversial moves, Prime Minister Abe remains a multilateralist, with tireless efforts to promote a new, legally-based international order. He is also steadfast in improving and maintaining the alliance relationship between the United States and Japan.

In 2015, he lobbied for the passage of a new national security law, which contained the controversial provision amending certain constitutional provisions that restrict the armed activities of the Air Force. protection. The new law allows Japan to exercise its collective defense responsibility and thereby assist the US military if necessary.

After Donald Trump was elected President of the United States in 2016, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo quickly traveled to New York to become the first foreign leader to meet the new President of the United States at Trump Tower.

Abe resigns, how will Japan and Asia be affected?
Former Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. Photo: AP

Although President Trump later withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an agreement that Abe believes has significant economic and strategic importance, the Prime Minister of Japan remains the same. General agreement with the remaining 11 countries under the new name: Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement of Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP, for its acronym in English).

At the same time, Prime Minister Abe agreed to cooperate with the United States government to form a separate bilateral agreement, albeit more restrictive than the TPP, but still consistent with the tariffs of the two countries, and more importantly, help to avoid bilateral trade tensions.

Regarding relations with China, Mr. Sracic said that Japan faces a dilemma. Although suspicious of China’s growing power, Japan is still economically tied to neighboring Asia. Therefore, Prime Minister Abe must ensure alliance relations with the United States and avoid unnecessary provocations with China.

Who will replace Mr. Abe?

According to Professor Sracic, Abe’s possible successors include Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, current Defense Minister Taro Kono, and former Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida.

Still, whoever is elected by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party next month will have to find a way to balance Japan’s interests and competitiveness in the international arena. Mr. Sracic hopes that Japan’s current balance will remain as it was under Mr. Abe, in favor of the United States.

Japan has maintained closer ties with China, under former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. However, the Japan-US alliance remains strong enough and has been institutionalized in some way through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, leading to regular conferences between the US, Japan, Australia, and India. to keep the to keep the Indo-Pacific free and open.

Professor Paul Sracic concludes that Abe’s resignation is not immediately alarming, but does pose a significant challenge to the stability of the Asian region. Although he doesn’t know who Abe’s successor is, Sracic hopes the new Japanese prime minister will remain committed to an alliance relationship with the United States.

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