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Recently, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has been constantly tense as both Beijing and Taipei have taken many measures to increase military activities. In fact, some satellite images showed that China in early August sent Type 05 amphibious armored vehicles, PHL-16 and PCL-191 multi-barrel missile systems to the Military Region. East of this country.
The Eastern War Zone was inherently responsible for the Taiwan Strait area. Beijing has also repeatedly asserted that it does not give up the solution of using military power to unify Taiwan.
Satellite images of the Type 05 amphibious assault vehicle were deployed by China in the Eastern War Zone. |
Beijing weighs Washington’s involvement
Former Colonel Schuster (who teaches at the University of Hawaii on international relations, history) assessed: China aims to dominate the western Pacific region by 2030. Beijing shows the threat To subjugate Taipei, it must accept this goal.
Meanwhile, the United States is committed to defending Taiwan, but has expressed an unclear view of whether or not to interfere if the island is attacked. Amid such a situation, Beijing had yet to consider the possibility of Washington’s involvement when Taipei was attacked. If we attack Taiwan and the United States is involved, then China cannot concentrate all its forces on Taiwan, ”said Schuster.
This expert also said that at present, the military superiority in the Taiwan Strait is completely in favor of mainland China. But mobilizing the full force for the attack in this sea is very risky and can be negotiated at unpredictable costs.
“The first option for Beijing is to break the political will of Taipei. But Taiwan is unlikely to be subdued without a military attack. Therefore, mainland China may have the following options to attack Taiwan, ”said Schuster and offered the following scenarios.
Breaking the political will
Mainland China continues to carry out ongoing intimidation campaigns, combined with diplomatic and economic levers to isolate Taiwan from external support. When Taiwan realizes that the protest is futile, it will conduct negotiations with mainland China to reach a unified agreement. After reunification, Beijing could control Taiwan in its own way that could circumvent previous agreements.
This is the most perfect scenario for Beijing, but in reality it is not easy to achieve, because it is difficult for Taipei to “surrender” if there is no war.
Blockade of some islands controlled by Taiwan
The Taiwanese defense force exercises under the assumption of being attacked by mainland China. |
China continues its campaign of further escalation of military pressure. In the islands near Taiwan that Taipei is under control, the military force deployed by Taipei with considerable force made the attack by Beijing not easy. However, Beijing may deploy forces to blockade these islands in order to cut off Taiwan’s support and logistics.
This approach poses significant risks for mainland China, as it could lead to large-scale military conflict. If the protracted conflict can involve Washington, quickly scale up arms aid to Taipei. Furthermore, military activities targeting the Dongsha Archipelago may cause ASEAN countries to worry about the remaining islands and entities in the South China Sea.
Air and missile attack
Beijing may also choose to attack with air and missiles if it evaluates that the speed of deployment may be quickly submissive to Taipei, while the international community or its allies cannot respond in time. often involved.
China deployed satellite images of the PCL-191 multi-barrel launch system in the Eastern War Zone |
Along with the aforementioned military measures, mainland China may launch a cyberattack campaign against Taiwan’s economic and financial system.
Even without the capture of Taiwan, with air and missile strikes, combined with cyber attacks, mainland China can proactively declare a ceasefire to negotiate when reaching a certain goal. This Beijing resolution aims to make Taipei leaders feel that the protest will only have consequences. But this solution also carries a high risk for Beijing that Washington may react and China will be affected in the international arena. A swift attack with a target sufficient to subjugate Taiwan, the scale of the attack and the firepower had to be enormous. At that time, the image of civilian casualties and homes in ruins in Taiwan could cause political, economic and diplomatic damage in mainland China.
Furthermore, the fact that with Taiwan’s military might, Beijing could hardly break Taipei’s will if it did not conduct an amphibious assault campaign.
Total attack
Taiwan Defense Force Lightning 2000 Blade Multi Barrel Jet Artillery During Exercise Han Quang on July 16, 2020 |
This is the riskiest scenario for Beijing, as China’s entire economy will be affected. Furthermore, the United States is very likely to get involved and lead to a full-scale conflict.
At that time, China will pay a very high price not only in terms of life, but also in economics, politics, diplomacy for opening a war.
In fact, if Taiwan continues to maintain a military force with strong defensive capabilities, this scenario can prevent it entirely. This is also the story of some Southeast Asian countries before the difficult situation in the South China Sea.
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Chinese general: still has the option to attack Taiwan |
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