What will Japan’s relations with China be like in the post-Abe era?

Will the approach to China change little?

Abe’s successor as Japan’s prime minister is expected to continue his predecessor’s approach to China, which would balance economic relations with a tougher posture on security.

Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, who began his second term in 2012, announced on August 28 that he would resign for health reasons. Over the past eight years, he has witnessed ups and downs in Japan-China relations and, more recently, tension in bilateral relations after the Covid-19 pandemic and the enforcement of China’s security laws. national security with Hong Kong.

Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, said he does not want his deteriorating health situation to influence important political decisions, so he will resign. However, he will remain prime minister until the ruling Liberal Democratic Party elects a new leader.

It is unclear who will become Abe’s successor. Among the prominent candidates are former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida.

Abe loyalists like Finance Minister Taro Aso, who served as Secretary of State, and Chief of Staff Yoshihide Suga, are considered potential candidates.

Furthermore, other members of the Cabinet, such as Defense Minister Taro Kono, Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Koizumi, and Health Minister Katsunobu Kato, are also highly regarded as capable of replacing the Mr. Abe. .

Former Defense Minister Ishiba, one of the few Liberal Democrats to openly criticize Abe, is at the forefront of public opinion polls but is said to have received little support. home in the ruling party.

Ishiba supported efforts to amend Japan’s postwar peace constitution, but criticized Abe’s approach for being too hasty. Nor did she participate in visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, a controversial issue with several countries in the region.

“This may mean that Ishiba could be friendlier to China and less vigorously promote changes to Japan’s peace constitution,” said Liu Jiangyong, an expert on Japan. Version at Tsinghua University in Beijing said.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lap Kien declined to comment, saying Beijing wants to continue developing relations between the two countries.

Balance between America and China

Analysts say Japan is unlikely to change its current approach to avoid getting bogged down in a confrontation between the United States, Japan’s key ally, and China, Japan’s biggest trading partner.

“Alliance with the United States, but maintaining relations with China is Japan’s top priority … that will not change,” said Michito Tsuruoka, an assistant professor at Keio University in Tokyo. to know.

However, Tsuruoka also said the focus would be difficult to sustain for long if the US-China relationship continues to deteriorate.

“If President Trump is elected and continues with his harsh policies with China, China-Japan relations will suffer because, after all, Japan remains a key ally of the United States,” Liu Jiangyong said in Dai. Tsinghua said, at the same time, he claimed that Democratic candidate Joe Biden would have a “less extreme” approach to China than the incumbent president.

Abe has always tried to avoid a direct conflict with China despite the two sides having disputes in the East China Sea, as well as tensions over control of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Hong Kong issue.

“Mr. Abe’s policy emphasizes practical and pragmatic aspects,” said Huang Dahui, an international relations expert at Beijing People’s University.

Relations appear to have improved in the past two years, when Prime Minister Li Keqiang paid a “thaw” visit to Tokyo in May 2018 and Abe visited China the following year. Abe was also Japan’s first leader in China in eight years.

However, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, Abe urged Japanese companies to reorganize their operations from China to reduce dependence on Beijing. However, the size of the Chinese market means that this will not be an easy option for Japanese companies, Huang said.

According to the Hoang pham

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