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President Donald Trump could still win the 2020 US election, but with only a 10% chance.
Nate Silver, an American statistician and founder of the election polling website FiveThirtyEight, a special correspondent for ABC News, said on Oct. 31 there was a clear possibility that President Donald Trump would win the election. President of the United States in 2020, but to win requires more than a “full-scale voting error.”
As of this post, FiveThirtyEight predicts that Joe Biden will win the election, while Donald Trump has only a 10% chance of winning.
Many Democrats worry that the polls are wrong, although Silver says “if polls that are wrong like 2016 in the same states are wrong,” Biden will still win.
Nate Silver wrote: “Donald Trump may win, that seems plausible,” but “2016-style research error will not be enough for Trump to win.”
According to Nate Silver’s analysis, Donald Trump is no longer in a firm position as in 2016, the president has a worse support rate than Hillary Clinton in every battlefield state. Polls can be wrong, but the more likely they are wrong the narrower a candidate’s lead. For now, Joe Biden’s lead rate is large enough that Trump’s probability of winning is 10%, significantly less than the 35% probability that Trump has right now in 2016.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s results in national polls, Biden is ahead of Trump by 52 – 43.4.
Two days before Election Day 3.11, more than 90 million Americans voted early, according to the University of Florida’s American Elections Project, the highest number in more than a century.
This record number represented approximately 65% of all voters who voted in 2016, reflecting strong interest in voting.
Many people voted by mail or at early voting locations amid concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic.
President Donald Trump’s administration has come under fire for its control of the pandemic, which has killed nearly 229,000 people in the United States, and the number of new infections is once again breaking daily records.
Democrats have a significant advantage in early voting because they keep ballots by mail, while Republicans say the early voting system is susceptible to widespread fraud.
Experts predict that voter turnout will easily exceed the 138 million who voted in 2016. Only 47 million votes were cast before Election Day four years ago.
In the 20 states that report registration data, 19.9 million registered Democratic voters voted, compared with 13 million Republican voters and 10.1 million nonpartisan voters. The data did not reveal who voters voted for.
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