NBA teams typically have to worry about injuries or illnesses that force players to sideline, but there is a new problem to face as the league restart in Orlando approaches. Several players, possibly with more on the way, have chosen not to participate in the rest of the 2019-20 season for various reasons, ranging from health to social justice. Players have every right to make that decision, but it leaves their teams with questions about how to replace them.
With that in mind, we take a look at the players who have already chosen not to compete in the bubble, and try to figure out which players would be the most difficult and easy to replace, statistically speaking. Since no single figure fully encapsulates a player’s impact, we take the average of the player’s rank in five statistics designed to measure the overall value: actual plus-minus (RPM), plus-minus box (BPM), value over the player replacement (VORP), earn 48-minute actions (WS / 48) and player efficiency rating (PER).
That left each player with an overall “stat rank”, which gives him an idea of their position compared to the rest of the NBA. With this method, the reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo stat range would be 1.2, while a relatively average player like James Ennis would have a stat range of 305.8. That should give you a little context on what these numbers mean and how difficult it will be to replace players for the rest of the season. To a large extent, we also note the team’s net rating with that player on and off the court this season.
* Average statistical range RPM, BPM, VORP, WS / 48 and PER
- Statistics range: 395.4
- Net On / Off Rating: minus-7.6
On the surface it may seem like losing a wing playing more than 20 minutes per game would be a blow to the Nets, but Chandler has been pretty ineffective in his 35 games this season after a PED suspension to start the year. Brooklyn has been 7.6 points worse than its opponents for every 100 possessions with Chandler on the court this season, so they might actually be better off dividing their minutes among their other wings. This will also allow Nets coach Jacque Vaughn to get more minutes from the lineup of Spencer Dinwiddie (if he leaves), Joe Harris, Caris LeVert, Taurean Prince and Garrett Temple, who has a net rating of over 11.6 this season. in 208 minutes.
- Statistics range: 312.6
- Net On / Off Rating: plus-0.8
This is where the stats seem to be a little below contribution, as most would agree that Bradley’s foreclosure is a significant loss for the Lakers. The question is whether they can break even by giving their minutes to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso and newly signed JR Smith. Bradley helps the Lakers positionally by defending opposing guards, allowing LeBron James to take on base duties on offense, and the team has done better defensively with Bradley on the field. Statistics indicate that Bradley’s absence will not influence Lakers’ title hopes in one way or another, but given his playoff experience and basketball IQ, they would certainly prefer to have him out there.
- Statistics range: 308.4
- Net On / Off Rating: minus-2.6
Oladipo is perhaps the best known player to choose not to participate in so far, and his case is puzzling. For one thing, he would have been more than capable of making a huge difference in the Pacers postseason. On the other hand, evidence over the course of his 13 games with the team suggested that he is still far from being the Star fans who came to know and love in Indiana. Oladipo was clearly improving, but the Pacers were worse off him on the court and it is unknown if he would have improved enough early in the playoffs to have a significant impact. Unfortunately, we won’t have a chance to find out, and the Pacers, already weak in the backcourt after the loss of Jeremy Lamb, will have to lean on Justin Holiday and Doug McDermott to fill those wing minutes, with players like TJ McConnell. Aaron Holiday and Edmond Sumner probably run more.
- Statistics range: 292.4
- Net On / Off Rating: plus-0.6
A veteran defender, Sefolosha played just over 10 minutes per game for the Rockets this season and missed the court in six of the team’s last seven games before the break in March. It wasn’t a big factor for the Rockets, even in their small ball setups, and they have already replaced it with Luc Mbah a Moute, whom our James Herbert says can have a huge impact on the Houston defense despite not having played in an NBA game since October 2018. The Rockets may have been upgraded by Sefolosha choosing to sit down.
- Statistics range: 219.2
- Net On / Off Rating (with Blazers): plus-8
Ariza’s stat range is skewed as he played half the season in Sacramento where he was terribly offensive. However, since joining Portland in January, he has been a key part of Portland’s thin-winged rotation, so losing him makes the Blazers’ path to the postseason in Orlando much more difficult. The Blazers were a plus-8 with Ariza on the court this season, and he was essential to one of the team’s best lineups (plus a 5.6 net rating in 230 minutes) alongside Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Carmelo Anthony and Hassan Whiteside . Perhaps the worst part for the Blazers is that, without Rodney Hood, they will be forced to play wings like Gary Trent Jr. and Nassir Little, who have not been great and don’t have a modicum of the playoff experience that Ariza has.
- Statistics range: 135.8
- Net on / off rating (with Mavericks): minus-1.1
Cauley-Stein’s advanced metrics are pretty good, but that’s much of his time playing a leading role with the Warriors this season. Since joining Dallas, he has been in and out of the rotation, so his impact in Orlando would likely have been minimal. That said, without Dwight Powell, certain matchups will present a problem for the Mavericks, and it would have been nice to have at least the option of throwing Cauley-Stein for 8-10 minutes here and there to be a lob and rim-runner threat just like things being, they will probably rely heavily on the rosters with Kristaps Porzingis in the center, which have been incredibly effective this season. So overall, it’s not a big loss for the Mavs.
- Statistics range: 115.6
- Net On / Off Rating: more-7.3
The Wizards were equally terribly defensive with or without Bertans on the floor this season, but they became an offensive monster during their minutes, scoring 113.6 points for 100 possessions. Due to the volume and efficiency of his 3-point aim, Bertans is ranked 23rd on ESPN’s true plus-minus, just ahead of All-Stars Rudy Gobert, Pascal Siakam and Jayson Tatum. The other advanced stats are not that friendly to Bertans, but he is undoubtedly the most important player on the Wizards list who is not named Bradley Beal. Without Bertans, the Wizards’ slim hopes of making the postseason drop even further.
- Statistics range: 81.8
- Net On / Off Rating: minus-1.5
It may be a bit surprising that Jordan is statistically the most shocking player to choose not to take part in Orlando so far, whether he agrees with those stats is up to you. Jordan is in the top 60 this season in BPM, VORP, PER, and WS / 48, but drops to 214th in the plus-minus actual, which seems quite unusual. However, the higher rankings are somewhat puzzling when you see that the Nets have actually been 1.5 points for every 100 possessions. worst with Jordan on the court. He entered the starting lineup for the past two games before closing, both wins, so the Nets have essentially lost their front-line center. Jordan was also part of one of the team’s best lineups this season (plus 13.1 in 86 minutes), with Dinwiddie, Harris, Prince and Garrett Temple. Jarrett Allen will have to absorb more minutes, with more small ball lineups en route to Brooklyn.
