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A team of researchers at the Lyell Center in Edinburgh have developed a way to use mathematical formulas to help predict when an earthquake is likely to occur. In his article published in Geophysical Research Review: Solid Earth, the group describes the translation of the movement of a particular type of rock into mathematical equations, which led to the creation of a predictive formula.
A lot of time and effort has been invested in the past few decades trying to find a way to predict when a major earthquake will occur, but to date, such efforts have fallen short. In this new effort, researchers have taken another approach to the problem: the use of mathematics.
The researchers began their effort with evidence that certain types of rocks play a key role in earthquakes. They form a group called phyllosilicates, and they form in sheets or plates. Earthquakes occur, the theory suggests, when such rocks slide against each other. The researchers noted that friction resistance is a crucial factor in such slippage. It is defined as the force required to push one of the sheets or plates against another sheet or plate. And the resistance to friction is something that can be calculated. To arrive at useful calculations, the researchers studied many samples of phyllosilicates and the ways they interact with each other under different conditions. They used what they learned to develop equations that described the behavior of such rocks in underground depths, where they could not be directly tested. Then they took into account other variables such as humidity levels, fault movement, and the speed at which the soil can move in fault zones. After much work with the equations, the researchers developed a formula that they believe can be used in real-world situations to predict when an earthquake could occur at a certain location.
The researchers note that its formula is still a work in progress, and they note that scientists are still determining how phyllosilicates behave under different scenarios. As an example, they point out that in some unusual places, phyllosilicates can actually get in the way of earthquakes.
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J. Liu-Zeng et al. Post-seismic deformation after the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake: new GPS data, kinematic and dynamic models, and the roles of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation, Geophysical Research Journal: Solid Earth (2020). DOI: 10.1029 / 2020JB019852
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Citation: Use of mathematical formulas to predict earthquakes (2020, July 13) retrieved on July 13, 2020 from https://phys.org/news/2020-07-math-formulas-earthquakes.html
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