NEW YORK – The men’s singles draw for the US Open just doesn’t look good – not missing with the names of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, not buried with Andy Murray as just another ATP schmo on line no. 115, its name in regular font as opposed to the bold reserved for the seeded players.
Just as strange: the lack of 16 qualifiers. Basically, seeing how many qualifying matches end in the same quarter, or play each other, maybe even in consecutive rounds, is good entertainment. Not in this year of the coronavirus pandemic.
At least Novak Djokovic is in, representing what’s left of the Big Three, while Federer works to heal his injured knee and Nadal sits out of the tournament, keeping his eyes on the upcoming French Open this topsy-turvy year.
The WTA draw is less shocking, perhaps because supernova Serena Williams has signed up to play, as has Sofia Kenin, who won the first – and so far only – Grand Slam event this year, the Australian Open. The missing recent Grand Slam champions, No. 1 ranked Ashleigh Barty, No. 2 Simona Halep and No. 6 Bianca Andreescu, will surely be missed. But perhaps their loss will be as great as ours if this tournament, so strongly shaped by concerns about security in the pandemic, plays smoothly.
Here is our analysis of the drawing.
Best match in the first round
ATP: No. 5 seed Alexander Zverev vs. Kevin Anderson. Who can forget Anderson’s epic back-to-back overtime matches over Federer and John Isner in the late stages of Wimbledon in 2018? Those were the matches that forced Wimbledon to finally adopt a definitive tiebreaker. Anderson, who in July 2018 hit a career-high ranking of No. 5, has fallen to No. 124, mainly due to a persistent elbow injury. But he is now on the comeback trail, while Zverev, who has won all five of their previous meetings, struggled when the game closed.
WTA: No. 20 seed Karolina Muchova vs. Venus Williams. Does the 40-year-old icon from the US still have enough game to take out Muchova, who has quickly risen to the wings of an attractive, all-court game? None of these women are on the short list of candidates, but they are likely to produce a close, expertly played match. This will be their first meeting.
Strongest quarterfinal
WTA: The third quarter of the lottery is anchored by No. 3 seed Serena Williams, on the other side of No. 7 seed Madison Keys. In between: former Grand Slam winners Garbine Muguruza, who played at a high level when the tour moved due to the pandemic, and Sloane Stephens. Also in the quarterfinals: dangerous Maria Sakkari, Olympic singles gold medalist Monica Puig, running back Donna Vekic and rising American star Amanda Anisimova.
ATP: The fourth, bottom quarter of the lottery led by No. 2 Dominic Thiem is what football experts would call ‘the group of death’. There are a ton of fireworks in this section: Murray, No. 11 seed Karen Khachanov, No. 15 Felix Auger-Aliassime, former US Open champion Marin Cilic, Sam Querrey, No. 25 Milos Raonic, King of Aces Ivo Karlovic, and Vasek Pospisil are all in this quarter, along with two very hard outs in No. 8 Roberto Bautista Agut and Aussie dynamo Alex De Minaur. It’s nothing short of amazing.
Weakest quarterfinal
ATP: The only person who seems to be able to overpower this number 4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas this quarter is on the other side of the section is Zverev. But the German star has had enough of worrying (see above) coming out of the gate. No. 9 Diego Schwartzman is a great competitor, but lacks greatness and power, and although No. 27 Borna Coric has his moments, not too many of them have been lately. Tsitsipas has an excellent shot at making the semis.
WTA: The top quarter offers top seed Karolina Pliskova, who is ranked No. 3, a wonderful opportunity. Sure, No. 17 Angelique Kerber, a multiple Grand Slam singles champion, may be her fourth-round opponent, but the German, now 32, disappears. The only other pro in the section who has gone deep with a major is No. 12 Marketa Vondrousova, but that young Slovakian, the finalist of the 2019 French Open, has recently had injury problems and has only one WTA title left, compared to Pliskova’s 16
Favorite most risk
WTA: Serena Williams is the No. 3 number, but her history in Grand Slam majors since she last won one (Australian Open in 2017) has been both surprising and disappointing. Her drive to compare the record 24 Grand Slam singles titles (Williams tracks by one) with Margaret Court has taken a toll. She has been very positive in her return from the pandemic shootout, but she has only won two of five matches and fought un-serenely in each of them.
ATP: It may seem like we’ve choosing Zverev, but not only has he had a very tough first-round, he has not completely overcome the serving yips he developed last year. Reason for the closure, he often seemed self-conscious and poorly motivated. What weaknesses the others have sown in the top eight is not satisfying any of them.
Favorite best position to sail
ATP: Daniil Medvedev, seeded No. 3 and the losing finalist in 2019 to Nadal, seems to have a clear path to at least Round 4, where his likely opponent no. 14 Grigor Dimitrov would be. That Bulgarian player might not yet be fully fit after his coronavirus attack. Matteo Berrettini, No. 6, could be an obstacle in the quarterfinals as he is one of the few players who can beat anyone from the court.
WTA: It’s a toss-up between top seed Pliskova, in the weakest quarter, and Kenin, who has some tough but navigable potential opponents in hard-hitting Kaia Kanepi, No. 27 Ons Jabeur, Kim Clijsters and No. 9 Johanna Konta. But Kenin can probably imagine a fate as a quarterfinal against power-punching, but inconsistent number 5 seed Aryna Sabalenka.
Cinderella candidate
WTA: Sure, youngsters like Coco Gauff, Anisimova and Leylah Fernandez are appealing choices, but 16-year-old Gauff gets a potential rematch with two-time Grand Slam champion and No. 4 seed Naomi Osaka in the third round. And remember that 21-year-old Russian-born Elena Rybakina excelled this year after a 21-5 start, surprisingly none, and was only stopped by the shutdown mid-March. Honorable mention: Can Clijsters actually win another US Open than a wild card entry?
ATP: The Minaur, No. 21, started 2020 with a bang: wins in a row to No. 12 Denis Shapovalov and Zverev at the ATP Cup. The winner of three major titles in 2019, the 21-year-old Aussie then suffered a abdominal injury that caused him to miss the Australian Open. Because of the pandemic, he never had a chance to get his game back on track. Honorable mention: Andrey Rublev, seed number 10, won the hard court event in Adelaide earlier this year. He loves the hard courts, and is fast enough to handle the fast-paced straight-up speed of the US Open.
American with the friendliest path
ATP: “Friendliest” is a relative term, and the reality is that American men have not been issued free passes. Reilly Opelka, Steve Johnson, Tommy Paul and Tennys Sandgren have all drawn seeded opponents. Taylor Fritz opens against German Dominik Koepfer, at No. 91. Fritz would have a chance if he makes the third round and finds Shapovalov waiting.
WTA: The best American player now, Kenin, also has the most appealing path. The only other player in their quarter who has also won a major is Clijsters, who has to make it to Round 4 to play Kenin.
Usually have to press the reset button
WTA: Stephens is in another period. She has dropped to number 37 in the rankings and is happy that she sowed in New York (No. 26) because of so many women of higher rank who choose not to play. Stephens, who won just one game before the tour went dark, has a winning game in the first round against Mihaela Buzarnescu, and a potential third-round encounter with Serena Williams is not entirely the mission impossible that it’s in. the previous years has been.
ATP: It’s remarkable how up-and-coming Cilic, a former US Open champion and Wimbledon runner-up, has been in his career. He is after number 37, but fortunately he has the number 31. At 31, he would still be able to fight on majors – especially on fast surfaces.
Hard luck of the lottery
ATP: The game went into hiatus just as wrestling Johnson began to pull out of a swoon with a win on the Indian Wells Challenger. His opponent from the first round at the US Open will be No. 16 seed, friend and compatriot Isner. It’s an awkward matchup, given that American men are close, and even more so because of Isner’s love for the tough courts of the US Open. However, Johnson has won six of her 11 meetings, so he certainly got a shot.
WTA: Did Wild Card Sachia Vickery of the US really have to see her name combined with that of fellow American Taylor Townsend? Four other WTA games in the first round, with three big names, will be between compatriots: Another American matchup between Serena Williams and Kristie Ahn; Account against Heather Watson, both of Great Britain; and Osaka against Japanese counterpart Misaki Doi.
Most likely by discovered sneak
WTA: Anett Kontaveit has spent her entire career flying under the radar, but the No. 14 seed is a tough competitor with a crazy game. Do not be surprised if she passes Danielle Collins of the US in the first round. She could make life difficult for Osaka in a fourth-round clash.
ATP: Raonic, the 2016 Wimbledon finalist, is seeded as number 25, but much stronger than the number suggests. A former ATP No. 3, the Canadian has long struggled with injuries, but he is one of the players who benefited most from stopping the game. He looked fresh and healthy at the Western & Southern Open.
First round match we want to see the most
ATP: Number 7 David Goffin vs. Opelka will provide a stark contrast: The towering American service bombs, while Goffin tries to make him faster with speed and consistency.
WTA: Wild card Robin Montgomery, a 15-year-old who does not even own a Wikipedia page, is 5-1 as a pro and is already rated as the “next Coco Gauff.” She will play No. 23 Yulia Putintseva in round 1. This will be a first look for everyone.
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