According to a new study, three simple behaviors could stop most of the Covid-19 pandemic, even without a vaccine or additional treatments. Those behaviors are:
- Wash your hands regularly
- With masks
- Maintain physical distance from others.
The study, published Tuesday in the journal PLoS Medicine, created a new model to look at the spread of the disease and prevention efforts that could help stop it.
Contact rates in the study were based on the interaction of people in the Netherlands, but the model is appropriate for other western countries, the team at Utrecht University Medical Center said.
“A major epidemic can be prevented if the effectiveness of these measures exceeds 50%,” they wrote.
However, if the audience is slow, but eventually changes behavior, it can reduce the number of cases, but not delay a peak in cases, depending on the model.
If governments close early, but no one takes additional personal protection measures, this will delay, but not reduce a peak in cases. A three-month intervention would delay the peak by up to seven months, according to the study.
But if there is government-imposed social distancing combined with disease awareness and personal steps, the height of the peak can be reduced, even after government-imposed social distancing orders are lifted.
“Furthermore, the effect of combinations of self-imposed measures is additive,” the researchers wrote. “In practical terms, it means that SARS-CoV-2 will not cause a major outbreak in a country where 90% of the population adopts 25% effective handwashing and social distancing.”
The reason it is not 100% is because even with self-imposed social distancing, contacts with others might not be completely eliminated. For example, people who live together will interact, increasing the likelihood of someone getting sick.
The researchers argue that governments should educate the public about how the disease spreads and raise awareness about the crucial nature of distancing, handwashing, and wearing masks to control an ongoing epidemic. It does not differentiate between ordering some of these behaviors or encouraging them.
Remember: There are limits to the model. It does not account for demographics, nor does it explain the imperfect isolation of people who are sick with Covid-19, which means they can infect others who care for them in a healthcare or home setting. It also does not take into account the possibility of reinfection.
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