The United States yesterday reported 36,975 new cases of COVID-19, its highest daily total since the new coronavirus pandemic began this winter.
Cases accumulated in states like California, Texas, and Florida, with each state reporting between 5,000 and 7,000 new cases. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott today suspended the reopening of his state.
“As we experience an increase in both COVID-19 positive cases and hospitalizations, we focus on strategies that reduce the spread of this virus and at the same time allow Texans to continue earning a salary to support their families.” Abbott said in a statement. “The last thing we want to do as a state is go back and close business. This temporary pause will help our state corner the spread until we can safely enter the next phase of opening our state for business.”
Oregon, Nevada, Kansas, Louisiana and North Carolina also announced reopening pauses or delays in the past week in light of the increase in the number of cases.
Today, Abbott also suspended elective surgeries and medical procedures in Bexar, Dallas, Harris and Travis counties in an effort to free hospital beds. Counties represent San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, and Austin. Texas Public Radio said yesterday that San Antonio ventilator availability fell below 70%, and the capacity of an intensive care unit at a Houston hospital was already at 120%.
Yesterday, Texas tracked 5,551 new cases and 29 new deaths, for a total of 125,921 cases and 2,249 deaths in the state. Harris County and the Houston metropolitan area have nearly 25,000 cases.
Yesterday, Abbott urged Texans to stay home if possible, maintain physical distance, and cover their faces in public.
Non-elderly may also be at risk for serious illness
While age remains a major risk factor for severe COVID-19, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned today that younger adults with comorbidities can become seriously ill from the virus. .
A body mass index greater than 30, not 40, puts you at risk for serious COVID-19 infection regardless of your age, said CDC Director Robert Redfield, MD. So does chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and type 2 diabetes.
Redfield and Jay Butler, MD, CDC’s deputy director for infectious diseases, held a press conference today to discuss new guidelines on who is most at risk for serious complications from COVID-19. They warned that 40% of Americans are obese and 60% have at least one chronic health condition. Although the risk increases with age, it is likely because older Americans are more likely to experience one or more comorbidities.
If he’s at risk for serious illness, Redfield urged him to physically distance himself.
“The most powerful tool we have is social distancing, the virus is not efficient going 6, 7 or 10 feet between people,” said Redfield. “If we can also wear masks in public and practice surveillance in hand hygiene [those are] really powerful tools as we go through the fall and winter. “
Redfield and Butler’s warnings come 1 week before Americans celebrate the long weekend of July 4. They said the increase in cases among adults under the age of 45 means that the CDC message is being heeded that older Americans are at greater risk of contracting the virus, but younger Americans should receive more specific messages.
When asked about the rising cases in the south and west, Redfield said he was focused on the consequences of those cases.
“We need to look at hospitalization, mortality and death, and disruption of the economy and the school system,” said Redfield. He also said that the increase in cases in those states is related to the evaluation of asymptomatic and younger patients. In March and April, asymptomatic patients were not screened, he said, and CDC serologic surveillance data suggests that in those first months of the pandemic, each positive case in the United States represented 10 positive but unproven cases.
Although he said the increase in the number of cases was cause for concern, Redfield said the country was in a different situation today than it was in March or April.
“Two months ago, 25% of deaths in the country were due to COVID, pneumonia, or flu-like illness,” he said. “Now that has dropped to 7%.”
That same sentiment was shared yesterday by Vice President Mike Pence at a closed-door lunch with Republican senators, according to the Washington Post. According to reports, Pence said that while cases are increasing, mortality is not, because younger people are infected.
Expert warns of new hot spots
Ashish Jha, MD, MPH, director of the Harvard Institute of Global Health, sounded the alarm on Twitter in five states that he believes could be the next big spots: Georgia, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Nevada, and South Carolina. He wrote that in each of those states cases increased, the percentage of positive tests increased, and hospitalizations increased.
Remember that the increase in hospitalizations is a lagging indicator, occurring 10-12 days after infection, 5-7 days after the onset of symptoms, “he wrote. “That means that as hospitalizations increase, there are more than 10 days of increased infections. Each of these states needs to take more urgent steps to reduce their growing number of infections.”
Up to 150,000 deaths are projected in mid-July
Both CDC and the University of Washington Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME) released new models that adjust for expected deaths in the U.S.
The CDC model, based on 20 national forecasts, predicts that there will be between 130,000 and 150,000 total deaths reported by COVID-19 by July 18.
The number of new deaths over the next 4 weeks will increase in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Hawaii, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah, the CDC said.
The IHME model, which has been favored by the White House, now predicts 179,106 COVID-19 deaths in the United States by October 1. The model also shows that if Americans universally wear masks, 33,000 lives could be saved.
The Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 tracker shows 2,410,279 cases in the U.S., including 122,481 deaths.
