The United States and China have long disagreed over maritime freedom in the South China Sea, but this week was the first time that Washington made an official policy change to stifle Beijing’s activity, calling it “illegal” and thus opening the floodgates to a possible military response.
On Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement that the United States is “clarifying: Beijing’s claims to offshore resources in most of the South China Sea are completely illegal, as is its intimidation campaign. to control them. “
“Beijing uses intimidation to undermine the sovereign rights of Southeast Asian coastal states in the South China Sea, intimidate them with extraterritorial resources, assert unilateral dominance, and replace international law with ‘power does the right thing.'” Beijing’s approach has been clear for years, “she continued.” The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has no legal basis to unilaterally impose its will on the region. “
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In this photo provided by the U.S. Navy, USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Nimitz (CVN 68) Carrier Strike Groups form in the South China Sea, Monday, July 6, 2020 China on Monday, July 6, accused the US of flexing its military muscles in the South China Sea by conducting joint exercises with two groups of US aircraft carriers on the waterway (Third Class Mass Communication Specialist Jason Tarleton / US Navy via AP)
Pompeo stressed that Beijing has not offered a consistent legal basis for its “Nine-Line Line” claim in the South China Sea since it formally announced it in 2009.
In a unanimous decision of July 12, 2016, an Arbitration Tribunal constituted in accordance with the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea, to which the PRC is a State party, rejected the PRC’s maritime claims as having no basis in the international right. The court sided with the Philippines, which brought the arbitration case on almost all of the claims.
At the time, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia David Stilwell warned that Washington could further double with sanctions against Chinese officials and companies involved in defamed activities in the South China Sea, and promised that the United States “will no longer remain neutral on these maritime issues. “
Zack Cooper, a member of the American Enterprise Institue (AEI), told Fox News that legal statements from the United States make it clear that he considers “most Chinese claims and maritime activities in the South China Sea to be illegal.”
“Making this explicit opens the door for new moves by the United States to penalize China’s destabilizing behavior, particularly its interference with fishing and oil and gas exploration by other regional claimants, especially the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia, “he continued. .
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While US policy in the past condemned China’s territorial claims and expansion efforts in and around the vital body of water, of which about $ 3 trillion is transferred annually in trade, it has always called for conflicts are resolved peacefully by regional actors. However, analysts point out that this week’s wording deviates towards outright rejection and places the United States at the center of the conflict.
The guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) is underway in the South China Sea as part of the George Washington Carrier Strike Group. (US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Justin E. Yarborough / Released)
To further limit the gravity of the situation and demonstrate a commitment to freedom of navigation, the US warship Ralph Johnson also moved through territorially challenged waters on Tuesday.
The South China Sea is home to key transportation arteries, billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas deposits and lucrative fisheries. It is dotted with disputed islands and reefs, which are also vital to accessing these resources, and are routinely claimed by other countries, including Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
“It also serves as one of the most important trade routes in the world, with around 30 percent of maritime trade flowing through the area annually. This is largely the reason why the United States government advocates so much for freedom of navigation throughout the area, to deny China an opportunity to potentially be in control of such an important waterway, “said Craig Singleton, associate member and China expert at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD).
However, for more than a decade, the PRC leadership has become increasingly aggressive in its centuries-old proclamations that the region belongs to them, and has continued to strengthen its military presence there and order its ships freedom of movement.
Additionally, Beijing has been busy building everything from defense locations like hangars, bunkers, and airstrips to modern resorts, schools, and apartments, to farms, banks, hospitals, and communication capabilities.
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the closing session of the National People’s Congress of China in Beijing in May. (AP)
Furthermore, Beijing has constantly re-established local fishing communities and sent citizens to the region. In January 2019, the Chinese Academy of Sciences even opened its doors to the “Oceanographic Research Center” at Mischief Reef. In April of this year, Beijing declared two more administrative districts.
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Earlier this month, the Communist leadership sparked more fury by sealing off a section of the waterways for naval drills. Ultimately, the region is an essential part of the “Great Bay of China Area economic development” plan, and since 2012 it has intended to populate several islands.
“China would like to control the entire South China Sea, including its oil, gas and fishing resources,” Cooper surmised. “However, that puts it in conflict with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which makes it clear that China has only limited rights to sea areas in the South China Sea.”
And with much of the world distracted by the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan last year, the PRC’s activities on waterways have only increased in recent months, analysts conclude. Chinese barges have been accused of chasing Malaysian oil exploration vessels and, at one point, hitting a fishing vessel with the Vietnamese flag.
“China has been constantly engaged in land reclamation and the construction of military posts across the South China Sea, including by installing ground-to-air missiles, interference equipment and anti-ship missiles at some of these outposts,” he continued. Singleton. “China undertook these activities in violation of international law and despite a 2015 promise by Chinese President Xi Jinping to then President Barack Obama that it would not militarize the area.”
Members of a Chinese military honor guard march during the celebration to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China in Beijing on Tuesday, October 1, 2019. (AP Photo / Ng Han Guan)
It remains to be seen how far Washington is prepared to go to curb China’s “illegal” maneuvers.
Earlier this month, the United States deployed two carrier strike groups, the USS Nimitz and the USS Ronald Reagan, for joint operations in the South China Sea. In addition, there is the P8-Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft that crossed the sea, along with the United States Air Force’s strategic B-52 bomber, all while China was conducting its own training nearby. The U.S. Navy is known to have carried out at least six such operations during the first half of 2020 alone.
China’s foreign ministry predictably dismissed Pompeo’s stinging words on Monday, calling them “irresponsible” and a distortion of international law that “deliberately fuels territorial and maritime disputes, and undermines regional peace and stability.”
He also targeted the United States military presence earlier this month with a state-run media outlet tweeting that “any move by the US carrier in the region is a pleasure” by the Chinese military.
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But despite rising tensions this week, and the consequent stimulation of speculation that conflict could break out at any time on the resource-rich waterway, most experts say we are still far from a full fight between the two superpowers.
“A war or other military conflict seems highly unlikely at this time,” Singleton added. “Although tensions are likely to continue to rise as the United States publicly challenges China’s claims to sovereignty over the region and its continued efforts to threaten other countries, including Vietnam.”
