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Mercedes and Ferrari met on race day in F1’s last two visits to Monza. But there is little chance that Mercedes will face much competition at the head of the field at Sunday’s Italian Grand Prix.
The ‘qualifying mode’ ban did not prevent the team from sweeping the front row of the grid in eight tenths of a second. Meanwhile, Ferrari languishes at 13th and 17th in their first of three home races on the 2020 F1 calendar.
Mercedes’ closest rival on the track is McLaren, who emerged from a midfield brawl with Racing Point, Red Bull and Renault. Carlos Sainz Jnr planted his MCL35 third on the grid.
Could you resume the fight against Mercedes? Realistically, given that the race will likely affect tire performance and strategy constraints, there is little reason to think that they will.
F1 regulations force teams to make at least one pit stop, which is one more than they will likely need on a track where tire degradation is very low. Therefore, the race will be the usual matter of timing the pit stop to maximize the opportunity and / or limit the damage to a driver’s position on the track.
Given this, McLaren knows that there is little to be gained by trying to fight in a Mercedes much faster than, in the unlikely event that it cannot pass them with DRS on the straight, it is very likely that they will be overtaken in the pits.
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“If you could jump one over Mercedes, for example, at the start, then obviously you need to find the right balance,” said McLaren team principal Andreas Seidl. “Does it really make sense to fight these guys or try to keep them behind? Because it could be that in the end you lose more performance trying to do something that just isn’t possible. “
The top 10 finishers will start on soft tires and will likely extend their first stints until they can pit for middleweight and race to the finish. An early Safety Car period can make them opt for hardship. But it is doubtful that they will find themselves having to manage a significant tire drop at the end of the race, as happened at Spa.
With Max Verstappen fifth on the grid, Red Bull can be expected to be aggressive in strategy. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them make an early stop. Renault, which has Daniel Ricciardo seventh on the grid, may also be emboldened to attempt a short first period in a bid to gain positions after seeing how well his car performed towards the end of a long second period at Spa.
Valtteri Bottas, who qualified three places ahead of Verstappen, has a good chance of getting ahead of him in the drivers’ championship on Sunday. His real target, however, is his teammate, who is 50 points ahead of him in the title fight.
Bottas simply must take some points away from Lewis Hamilton for the first time since the season began if he is to have any hope of keeping him out of the championship. A decent start, something Bottas has found difficult to come by at times this year, would go a long way in achieving one.
But of course, Hamilton knows it too. It was surprising how eager he was to make an additional exit from the pits during final practice this morning to ensure he had as much information as possible available for the all-important moment when the red lights go out.
Quotes: Dieter Rencken
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Which of the Mercedes drivers will win at Monza and who will be closest to them? And can Ferrari score points at home?
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2020 Italian Grand Prix
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