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What is the last?
Several datasets were released on Friday that showed the same trend: Cases are on the rise. According to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), the R number, the average number of people infected per person with Covid, is between 1.0 and 1.2 for England and for the United Kingdom as a whole. But these numbers reflect the situation in recent weeks, given the lags in the range of data used.
Recent data from a population-based study called React-1, based on swabs collected from around 150,000 people between August 22 and September 7, suggests that the R for England is 1.7, with cases doubling every 7.7 days.
While these results are based on positive tests from 136 people, other studies, including a survey by the Office for National Statistics, also show that the disease is becoming more prevalent.
For the period from August 30 to September 5, the ONS team says that roughly one in 1,400 people in England’s community population had the disease, up from one in 2,000 the week before, although Figures are based on a small number of positive tests. .
Covid-19 symptom tracking survey data has also shown an increase in cases in the UK since late August, while Guardian analysis has shown that contrary to some suggestions, an increase in testing does not Fully explains the rise in infections in the UK revealed government figures on new cases.
Dr Kit Yates, Senior Lecturer in Mathematical Biology at the University of Bath, said: “Even after it is normalized by the amount of testing being done, it is clear that the number of cases is really increasing and that we need to take action. urgent to keep the spread of the disease under control. “
Where is this increase happening?
In short, everywhere. Experts say the increase in cases is no longer limited to particular “hot spot” areas, but is occurring across the country, although some regions such as the North West and North East of England are seeing higher increases than others. Fundamentally, the increase in cases is not limited to settings such as nursing homes or hospitals: Covid-19 is increasing in the community. All data sources agree that infections are more common among younger adults.
Why is this happening?
There has always been a concern that as restrictions are relaxed, cases will increase. After all, although more is known about Covid-19 and better treatments are offered, there is still no vaccine. Schemes like “eating out to help” have encouraged people to return to restaurants, and Boris Johnson has launched a campaign to get people back to the office.
The particular increase in young people is not surprising either. While some outbreaks have been linked to raves, young people are also more likely to be employed in public jobs, while older adults may be taking extra precautions or even protecting themselves.
How serious is this?
While the prevalence of Covid is still below what it was in the spring, the rise in infections is certainly a wake-up call that Covid-19 has not gone away. A major concern is whether the infections will affect vulnerable communities and lead to an increase in deaths. There is some sign that hospital admissions may have already started to rise slightly, and a similar scenario is already unfolding in other countries, including France. The reopening of schools and universities this month was not recorded in the most recent data, but is expected to drive a further increase in the spread of Covid.
Whats Next?
Local measures have been introduced in critical areas, and stricter measures were announced this week across the UK, including a ban on gatherings of groups of more than six people in England from Monday.
If the latest package of measures does not sufficiently reduce the spread, other restrictions can be considered. However, experts have recognized that this is a balancing act. Given that it will be almost impossible to eliminate Covid-19, the key question is: what level of transmission can we live with?
