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The Brexit wars have returned this week with all their fury and fire.
All five living former prime ministers have spoken out against Johnson and his plan to violate international law.
Former Chancellor Sajid Javid and former Attorney General Geoffery Cox have come out to say that they cannot support a bill that will overturn the Brexit divorce deal.
Breaking international law in a “specific and limited way” is a step too far for many MPs, regardless of which side of the line they are on when it comes to Brexit and Boris Johnson.
The rebellion is on the rise. Eighteen Conservative MPs have publicly expressed concern about the bill, while others tell me they will keep the powder dry until next week, when they will have a chance to amend the bill and give it to parliament, rather than ministers. , the power to trigger any breakdown. of the UK-EU withdrawal bill.
Mr johnson won the second reading vote comfortably Monday night, but I’ve been told that the number of rebels is increasing to 30. And it could grow even more. So prepare for a lot of parliamentary drama in the weeks ahead, as MPs and colleagues from the Commons and Lords try to amend the bill and pressure is mounting on the government to accept the amendments.
“This is something very anti-conservative,” said one rebel. “Many MPs keep their own lawyer, but make it clear to the whips that this bill needs to be amended.”
In many ways it is a repeat of the tactics of 2019. You may remember the ongoing battles between Johnson, Parliament and the EU that fall.
The prime minister played tough with the European Union, insisting that the Withdrawal Agreement be reopened and Irish backing removed, which effectively kept the whole of the UK in a customs union with the EU. He said that under no circumstances would he extend Brexit beyond October 31.
In the end, he struck a deal with the EU (and MPs forced him to delay Brexit as well). That “big” deal, which he’s now trying to overwrite, was the “oven-ready” Brexit deal he fought for and won the election on.
He won the support of Brexit supporters by removing support for the Withdrawal Agreement, but in return agreed to a new customs border within the UK between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. A border in the Irish Sea was then too much for the DUP and now, a year later, it is suddenly too much for the Prime Minister.
On Monday, Johnson framed his explosive internal market bill as a ‘last resort’ to protect Britain from the threat of “unreasonable and extreme” action by the European Union, which could use the Brexit deal agreed to last year. to separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. The prime minister again played tough with the EU. “What we cannot do now is tolerate a situation where our EU counterparts seriously believe that they have the power to divide our country.”
At first glance, Johnson appears to be on the brink of an explosion of trade talks and will do whatever it takes to protect British interests. But what if, in the words of a figure who knows Johnson and his senior adviser Dominic Cummings well, the prime minister is preparing to bring the trade deal on the table, at the same time as he goes to war over the Accord. Withdrawal to show that he was fighting the UK corner and trying to win concessions around state aid or border controls.
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After all, the actual trade talks might have completely disappeared, but they are still going on. Could it be that a trade deal is finalized long before this bill becomes law? Johnson could, as he did in 2019, say he played hard, won concessions and managed to secure a trade deal against all odds.
Walking to the edge of the Brexit cliff has been effective for this prime minister before, especially when it comes to winning approval from his pro-Brexit base. Agree or disagree, it is quite possible that this tactic will pay off again for the prime minister.
Whether the prime minister really intends to turn this bill into law or is using it as political theater to help frame any deal he gets as one he fought tooth and nail for, only he really knows. But for many of his colleagues and supporters the damage has already been done: his position as prime minister and our place in the world.
