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All pubs in Wales may not be able to sell alcohol again until spring under new plans from the Government of Wales.
This week, the Government of Wales has released its new coronavirus control measures that will put Wales on a tiered system as we have seen in England and Scotland.
After Christmas Day, all hospitality in Wales will have to shut down (excluding takeaway) as Wales goes into a full Level 4 lockdown from December 28.
Unlike what happened with the firewall, which was only on for two weeks, the pub restrictions are going to be much longer lasting.
Reading the new regulations, it appears that some pubs cannot sell alcohol until March or even later. This comes after they were banned from selling alcohol and having to close at 6pm for most of December.
Under the rules, pubs and restaurants will not be able to sell alcohol again until an area reaches Level 2, and even then they will have to serve it with a hearty meal.
Given the three-week review cycle the Welsh government is planning, the fact that it takes two weeks for the impact of restrictions to show up in the statistics, and the extremely high rates in areas like Merthyr, it is quite possible that most of areas of Wales will not have reduced Covid rates significantly enough, and in a sustained enough manner, to have reached Level 2 by March. You can read the full guide here.
What will determine when the pubs will reopen?
Of course, this all depends on the virus, but we can, using the guide, deselect one of the probable scenarios.
Under the new level four guidelines, all pubs and restaurants must close, except for take out.
Levels are decided based on a variety of nuanced factors, but essentially an area is at level four when:
- Confirmed case rate of more than 300 cases per 100,000 people seven-day average
- Positive test greater than 10% for seven days
- A reliable estimate of the rate R in one or more
These factors apply to all areas of Wales except parts of North Wales.
To go down to level three, the case rate must drop to between 150 cases per 100,000 people on average from seven days to 300.
In addition, the positivity of the test for seven days should be between 5 and 10%. That means the infection rate will have to be less than half the current rate.
The earliest this could happen is in the first three-week check-up after the blockage occurs. That would be January 18. If ministers are not confident enough at that point to lift the Level 4 lockdown, it could continue until the second three-week review on February 8.
But even when we go down to level three, the outlook for pubs is still really bad.
At level three there is still a hospitality closing time at 6pm and a ban on alcohol in pubs and restaurants.
So to start selling alcoholic beverages, hospitality will need to drop to level two.
To do this, we will need to be between 50 and 150 cases per 100,000 people, a test positivity rate between 3 and 5%, and no rapid growth in cases older than 60 years.
For context, you need to go back to October 1 to get an overall rate of 75 cases per 100,000 across Wales.
The next three-week closing review date after February 8 would be March 1. So if things go well, March 1 seems like a very important date for the hotel industry.
But even at level two, pubs are subject to heavy restrictions.
At level two, pubs and restaurants can serve alcohol again, but only if it is part of a substantial meal. In addition, the facilities must close before 22:20.
So even after all this time pubs that don’t sell food will realistically not be able to open as they can only sell soft drinks.
Only when we get to level one, which involves less than 50 boxes per 100,000 (not seen since early September), can pubs reopen and sell alcoholic beverages without eating. Even then, the 22:20 curfew is maintained for pubs and restaurants.
Ben Francis, chair of policy at the Federation of Small Business Wales, said wet bars were seriously concerned about the long-term outlook.
He said: “The Welsh government urgently needs to give some hope to hotel business owners across Wales who will be increasingly anxious about what the future holds for their businesses.”
“The publication of the Coronavirus Control Plan gives companies some certainty in terms of the types of restrictions they may face in the coming weeks, and how the Government of Wales will make decisions about changing the Alert Level, which FSB has requested repeatedly and help companies understand what the outlook will look like in the coming months.
“We are also pleased to learn that some money is starting to hit hotel businesses before Christmas. FSB repeatedly urged that with the Christmas trade gone for many, businesses would need government support to survive. As a result, companies will have a slightly less anxious Christmas.
“However, this does not change the difficult longer-term outlook facing hotel companies. The government has not yet indicated at all how long the level four restrictions will last, so there is uncertainty as to whether the allocated funds will be sufficient to support cover businesses sufficiently if restrictions last longer than the end of January. ‘Wet’ pubs (those that do not serve food) will be particularly concerned that the Welsh government tier system suggests that they will not be able to trade until areas reach the tier one, which means those particular companies may face a very uncertain period ahead. “
There is hope that a more regional approach to the measures will help reopen pubs in some places.
However, the Welsh government has indicated that while local restrictions are not out of the question, they are not going to happen anytime soon as national measures have proven to be more effective.
Francis added: “There are no details yet on how a regional approach could be adopted in Wales that recognizes the different prevalence rates of the virus in Wales and the potential to allow the economy to open further in those areas.
“The Welsh government needs to come forward with a plan to help these companies survive, and how they will support them to do so and give them more detail and certainty. These businesses are local employers and are often the backbone of their communities; we must make sure they can come out of this winter as viable businesses. “
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