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Preparations for the next vital UN climate summit, one of the last opportunities to steer the world towards compliance with the Paris agreement, have been given a boost with the election of Joe Biden as president.
The elections cap off a remarkable weeks in international climate action, which have seen China, the EU, Japan and others commit to long-term targets on greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Paris climate agreement.
Biden has vowed to return the United States to the Paris agreement, from which Donald Trump withdrew, and to set a goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, commitments that were underscored by his references to the climate crisis in his speeches after the outcome. it became apparent. .
“The difference [between the US under Biden and under Trump] it will be day and night, “said Todd Stern, Barack Obama’s climate envoy. “This is critical. Joe Biden understands [the climate crisis] and that it will be about how we collectively drive a transformation towards a net zero economy. The United States will engage with China, the other big players, and the smallest ones – the countries that care deeply about climate change. [because they are most affected by it] – everyone has a role to play. “
“With Joe Biden elected, what is indispensable may now be possible,” said Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister who oversaw the 2015 Paris agreement, now chairman of the French Constitutional Council. He told The Guardian: “We will have the conjunction of the planets that made the Paris agreement possible. Civil society, politics, business came together for the Paris agreement. We are seeing the same conjunction of the planets now with the US, the EU, China, Japan; If the big guys are going in the right direction, there will be a very strong incentive for all countries to go in the right direction. “
That considerably illuminates the prospects for the next UN climate summit, Cop26, which would have taken place this week, in Glasgow, had the Covid-19 pandemic not forced a postponement. The talks will take place in less than a year and the negotiations have continued apace, although hampered by the need for countries to deal with the pandemic crisis.
The re-entry of the US into the Paris fold and Biden’s proposals for a green economic bailout of Covid cap off a few notable weeks of international climate action. Leading nations have made a series of commitments that have transformed the prospects for Cop26: Countries responsible for more than half of global emissions and two-thirds of the global economy are now committed to net zero emissions by mid-century, the A goal that scientists say is vital to avoiding the worst ravages of climate collapse.
China shocked the world in late September, when President Xi Jinping told the UN general assembly that his country would reach zero net emissions by 2060 and peak its greenhouse gas production by 2030. While Details of how Xi intends to accomplish this are scant, the plan by the world’s largest emitter hailed as a “game changer” by climate diplomats.
After China’s announcement, Japan’s new prime minister also committed to net zero by 2050, and South Korea followed suit. The EU also reconfirmed its net zero target for the middle of the century in September, under the EU green deal.
With China, the US and the EU now broadly aligned, and dozens of smaller countries also committed to net zero plans, success at Cop26 seems possible. But there are still key obstacles.
The crucial question will be the difference between the long-term goals to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century and the short-term goals needed to achieve it. With long-term goals in place, the focus will be on the commitments countries are making to reduce emissions in the next decade.
Under the Paris agreement, nations commit to keeping global temperatures well below 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels, with the aspiration of limiting warming to 1.5 ° C. To do this, when the Agreement in 2015, countries established national plans, called nationally determined contributions, to reduce emissions by 2030 or similar dates.
Those plans were insufficient and would lead to 3 ° C of warming. The agreement stipulates that every five years countries must submit new targets, and the deadline for those NDCs is now looming. Some countries will not meet the deadline: Biden cannot commit until he takes office in January, and China is still finalizing its five-year economic plan for next spring, so it may be delayed, but the UN hopes that everything is ready by weather. for scrutiny before rescheduled Cop26.
The Guardian understands that the UK, which as the host of Cop26 needs to set an example, intends to present its NDC ahead of a key meeting to be chaired by Boris Johnson, with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, in a month. The Climate Ambition Summit on December 12 will mark exactly five years since the gavel fell on the Paris agreement, and is aimed at spurring action on NDCs.
That meeting will be a key test of Johnson’s climate diplomacy. Biden will not be present at the summit, as the Trump administration will remain in office. Trump will be invited, but it is not known if he intends to attend. It will be Johnson’s first term as host of a major international summit, and a test for both Cop26 and the UK G7 presidency next year, which is also expected to focus on the climate and the need for a recovery. ecological disease of Covid-19. pandemic.
Johnson’s possible relationship with the proudly Irish-American Biden has come into the spotlight in recent days, particularly over concerns expressed by Biden about the security of the Good Friday deal under Brexit. However, those differences are unlikely to have a strong impact on the success of the climate summit, according to Tom Burke, co-founder of the ecological think tank E3G and a longtime government adviser.
“Biden’s victory will be a boost and I don’t think Boris Johnson’s relationship with him will make much of a difference,” he told The Guardian. “There is no difference between Johnson and Biden’s interests in Cop26; they both know they have to progress, regardless of whether there is a dispute over Northern Ireland. They will continue to work together on the climate, and only the vaporous will combine the problems. “
