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The reproduction number (R) of the coronavirus in the UK has dropped slightly to between 1 and 1.2 across the UK, but deaths will continue to rise, government scientists say.
Analysis by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) suggests that infections are likely to increase again in December if blockades are lifted everywhere.
It suggests that local restrictions will be needed in certain areas in the weeks leading up to Christmas.
Sage warned that the virus is still spreading and that deaths and the demand for medical care will continue unless R falls below one for an extended period.
He said the number of new infections is growing between 1% and 3% every day.
For the last few weeks, he has put the R between 1.1 and 1.3.
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If the R value is above one, the Covid-19 epidemic continues to grow, but if it is below one, it shows that the outbreak is receding.
Separate documents from Sage released on Friday indicate that the national outbreak is still in a “high and controlled” phase.
If this continues to be the case, or if the outbreak returns to current levels after the national lockdown is lifted on December 2, Sage cautioned that there is “little or no scope to relax social distancing rules over Christmas.”
The official reproductive number of R is still above 1 because infections continue to increase among the elderly.
For England, the R is slightly higher between 1.1 and 1.2, down from the 1.1-1.3 range of the previous week.
These are the R numbers in England:
– Southeast from 1.2 to 1.4 (unchanged from a week ago)
– South West 1.2 to 1.4 (no change)
– East of England 1.1 to 1.4 (unchanged)
– Midlands 1.1 to 1.3 (unchanged)
– Northeast and Yorkshire 1.0 to 1.2 (down from 1.1 to 1.2)
– London 1.0 to 1.2 (down from 1.1 to 1.3)
– Northwest 0.9 to 1.1 (down from 1.0 to 1.1)
While the post focuses on England, it does suggest that R might have dropped below 1 in Wales and Scotland.
The pessimistic outlook came after two independent studies, feeding Sage, suggested that R might now be below 1 in England.
In his latest weekly R ad, Sage said: “The estimated growth rate means that the number of new infections is growing between 1% and 3% every day.
“Sage is confident that the epidemic has continued to grow in England in recent weeks.
“Although there is some evidence that the growth rate in some parts of the country may be slowing down, disease levels are very high in these areas; significant levels of demand for health care and mortality will persist until R is reduced and remains long overdue. under one for an extended period of time. “
The findings suggest that the Level 3 restrictions and in some areas were working to get the R-value below 1. However, government scientists believe that the Level 1 restrictions had little impact.
(Image: Press Association Images)
In towns and cities in England that were under Level 3 restrictions before the national shutdown, R is below 1 and new infections are declining.
The only complete region that has an R potentially below 1 was the Northwest with a range between 0.9 and 1.1.
It comes as daily confirmed coronavirus cases rose 46% to 33,470 on Thursday.
Some officials have suggested that the increase, the highest to date, is due to people getting out and socializing just before the current lockdown period began on November 5.
NHS Medical Director Stephen Powis played down the impact of the increase at a press conference in Downing Street on Thursday.
He said it was “important to look at the number of cases reported over several days and not take just one day in isolation.”
Another 563 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for coronavirus as of Thursday.
At least 200 UK frontline healthcare and care workers have died after contracting coronavirus, it was confirmed on Friday.
The list of health and social care workers includes those who were working in positions shortly before their death where they were likely to come into contact with patients.
The most recent victim was consultant anesthetist Dr. Krishnan Subramanian, who died Thursday.
“Quiet and Dedicated” Dr. Subramanian, in his late 40s, worked at the Royal Derby Hospital.
He was being treated at Glenfield Hospital in Leicester before his death.
The figure came when England’s former medical director claimed the country was ill-prepared for the coronavirus pandemic, as officials felt a virus would “never get that far.”
Dame Sally Davies, who left office in October 2019, said she questioned whether the country should rehearse for a coronavirus outbreak in 2015, but was told by England Public Health officials that it would not “get to us properly”.
She told the Daily Telegraph that officials focused on the threat of an influenza pandemic and therefore were prepared for the “wrong pandemic.”
But Public Health England said this is not true, adding: “Dame Sally Davies participated in exercises that were specifically planned for a MERS coronavirus scenario in the UK, among other health threats.”
Dame Sally, who left office last October, told the newspaper that the country “was not as well prepared as we should have been.”
She added: “I asked during a conversation in my office around 2015, should we do Sars? But they said no, because it wouldn’t get to us properly. They said it would die out and it would never travel that far.”
“So I asked, but it was the people from Public Health England who said we didn’t need to, and I will tell Parliament.”
“That advice meant we never sat down seriously and said, ‘Will we have a massive pandemic of something else?”
Nearly 67,000 Covid-19-related deaths have occurred in the UK, the latest figures show, while, as of 9am Thursday, another 33,470 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus cases had been recorded in the UK, the daily figure. highest recorded since the outbreak began.
(Image: Getty Images)
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A government spokesman said: “This is an unprecedented pandemic and we have taken the right steps at the right time to combat it, guided at all times by the best scientific advice, to protect the NHS and save lives.”
“There is a great deal of work behind the scenes, all of which would not be possible without the years of preparation undertaken for a pandemic, including influenza and other infectious diseases such as MERS, SARS and Ebola.”
A spokesperson for Public Health England added that planning for an influenza pandemic was the focus as it was the top part of the National Risk Assessment.
They added: “In all our time working with Dame Sally Davies, we agreed that the country should prepare for all health protection threats, including infections caused by different organisms such as coronaviruses.”
Meanwhile, nearly 20% of Liverpool residents have participated in a massive coronavirus test pilot in its first week, according to figures from the city’s mayor.
Joe Anderson said 90,000 people had been screened for Covid-19 since last Friday, when the city began offering testing to everyone, regardless of whether they had symptoms.
The figure is 18% of the city’s population of just under half a million.
Anderson told BBC Breakfast that 430 people had tested positive, and only about 200 of them showed symptoms before being tested.
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