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Good Morning. Boris Johnson may have thought on Monday, when he announced the three-tier alert system for England, that he had resolved the coronavirus policy, at least for the next week or two, but 48 hours later he is under intense pressure to change again. , and Implement a short “breaker” lockout. In part this is because it became known late Monday night that Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, was in favor, in part because the Labor Party accepted the idea yesterday, and this morning an unpublished article from Sage scientists are putting numbers on the lives that could be at risk if Johnson persists with his current policy.
As the Times (paywall) reports:
A document from members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) … shows that a full two-week lockdown, with stay-at-home orders and school closings, starting Oct. 24 could reduce deaths for the rest of the year. year from about 19,900 to 12,100. Hospital admissions could be reduced from 132,400 to 66,500.
A limited closure, with schools and stores open but hospitality venues closed, could cut deaths to 15,600 …
The paper by Graham Medley, chair of Sage’s SPI-M modeling group, and SPI-M members Matt Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael Tildesley, and Edward Hill, models the effect of different constraints at different times.
They say that “the optimal time for a break is always now; there are no good epidemiological reasons to delay the break ”, although they add that it could also apply during the Christmas holidays or the spring semester.
Johnson will be in the Commons later for PMQ, so we’ll get his reaction then.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30 am: Oliver Dowden, the culture secretary, testifies to the Commons culture committee.
10.30 am: The Northern Ireland assembly is meeting to hear details of the new partial closure plans for the region.
10.35 am: Grant Shapps, the transportation secretary, addresses a virtual convention of the travel organization Abta.
11am: The OECD publishes its Economic Survey of the United Kingdom.
11.15 am: Robert Buckland, the attorney general, testifies before a committee of the Lords on the internal market bill.
12:00 h: Boris Johnson faces off against Sir Keir Starmer at PMQ.
12:15 pm: The Scottish government plans to hold its regular briefing on the coronavirus.
Around 12:45 pm: Parliamentarians launch two debates on labor motions related to Covid financial support and contact tracing.
1.30 pm: Downing Street will hold its briefing in the lobby.
At some point, ministers are also meeting to discuss the possibility of Greater Manchester moving to stricter level 3 restrictions – the very high alert level.
Laura kuenssberg
(@bbclaurak)According @BBCMattCole On this day, government health officials talk about moving Greater Manchester and Lancashire to the stricter category of restrictions today
And Johnson must also hold talks with Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, before the EU summit that starts tomorrow.
Politics Live has doubled as the UK’s coronavirus live blog for some time and given the way the Covid crisis overshadows everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will also cover political stories other than Covid.
Here’s our global coronavirus live blog.
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