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Daily deaths from coronavirus could reach 240-690 in just over a week, scientists warn
Around 47,000 Covid-19 infections occur daily across England, with deaths expected to reach 240 to 690 a day by October 26, based on evidence presented to government scientists.
The biostatistics unit of the University of Cambridge Medical Research Council (MRC) released new predictions on October 12 about how fast the epidemic is growing across the country.
They estimate that cases are doubling in less than seven days, with a “substantial proportion” of those asymptomatic.
The figures are sent to the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modeling Group, which provides real-time information to the government through the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and to the Public Health England (PHE) regional teams.
On October 12, the MRC unit released a report saying: “Our current estimate of the number of infections that occur each day in England is 47,000.
“We predict that the number of deaths per day is likely to be between 240 and 690 on October 26.”
They said the daily number of infections was within the range of 28,900 to 74,900 per day, with the best estimate being 47,000.
They added that the estimated growth rate for England is 0.09 per day.
“This means that the number of infections grows by 9 percent every day and translates into doubling the number in less than a week,” they said.
Central estimates for the number of new infections are particularly high in the North West and North East and Yorkshire (17,600 and 10,700 infections per day, respectively), followed by London and the Midlands (5,450 and 5,720, respectively).
“Keep in mind that a substantial proportion of these daily infections will be asymptomatic.”
