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More significant restrictions on our freedom to interact with people, in social or work settings, could be introduced in fifteen days if the “rule of six” does not lead to a change in behavior and a flattening of the coronavirus infection rate.
I have spoken with members of the government and their scientific advisers, and I am amazed at how anxious they are that the virus is spreading uncontrollably again.
A member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) told me: “My great concern now is that we could once again be too late to avoid a second major wave.
“If we wait for deaths to increase again before taking decisive action, we will be in trouble again.”
A high-ranking member of the government told me that he was well aware of the scientists’ concern.
“There is no possibility that we will wait for the mortality rate to increase before acting,” he said.
He added that the deadline to assess whether this week’s new ‘rule of six’ had done enough to suppress the virus is fifteen days.
There is an opinion at the top of the government that almost all social distancing measures should be considered in addition to school closings.
A leading scientific advisor told me: “To be frank, the lockdown is the only thing we know that works.
“I think if we want to keep schools open, we will probably have to seriously consider a wide range of other measures to stop a major second wave.
“And we have to think about doing it right now, what we are starting to do.”
More restrictions on our way of life will divide the ruling Conservative party.
Many Conservative MPs even disapprove of the new legally enforceable rule in England that we must never meet in groups of more than six and its variants in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The prime minister has spoken of a return to something like the national blockade as a “nuclear option”, a last resort.
But his and Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s preference for targeted local action has been hit significantly by the Sudden overwhelming of the Covid-19 test system by a surge in demand – which means that it is now much more difficult for NHS Test and Trace to accurately identify where the virus is spreading.
Hancock faces a massive dilemma trying to match capability more closely with those in need of testing.
It will take weeks to significantly increase throughput.
So you are considering asking GPs to act as gatekeepers of the testing system, which would mean that those who want a test could only get one if their local doctor authorized it.
But the introduction of GP screening would undermine the timeliness of the data, adding at least another 24 hours to the process of wanting or needing a test and getting the result.
I understand that Hancock is very reluctant to assign this responsibility to GPs, but may have no alternative.
