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The UK government’s main scientific advisory body recommends a two-week national shutdown in October to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Group on Pandemic Influenza Modeling (Spi-m) have suggested that the closure should coincide with the mid-term to minimize disruption to schools, the Financial Times reported.
Sage’s advice goes to all four UK governments, but any decision on a national shutdown would be up to Prime Minister Mark Drakeford in Wales.
In England, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has told MPs that he wants to avoid a second lockdown, saying that “it would be completely wrong for this country.”
In Wales, the infection rate has risen to 23.6 infections per 100,000 people and has risen steadily in recent weeks as cases have skyrocketed in areas such as Merthyr, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Caerphilly and Newport.
However, hospitalizations remain low but on the rise, with five people currently in intensive care with Covid-19, according to the latest data from Public Health Wales on Sunday, September 13, and 53 Covid patients in all hospital wards.
In England, the R number is already believed to be significantly above 1, which means that the virus is spreading exponentially again. And some parts of Greater Manchester, which are seeing a significant increase in cases, are already experiencing high levels of hospitalizations.
“As schools will be closed for a week mid-term, adding an extra week will have a limited impact on education,” a scientist who is a Sage fellow told the Financial Times.
The number of positive Covid-19 cases is doubling every seven to eight days in England, according to a statistical analysis published last Friday by Imperial College London and Ipsos Mori.
The analysis estimated that the virus’s reproduction rate, or R, the average number of new cases generated by an infected person, stood at 1.7, which means the disease is spreading exponentially.
The scientist sitting at Sage said that if the R number continued at the same level as it is today, it would “break the NHS”, adding that the test-and-trace system was “creaking at the seams.”
It comes as the head of NHS Test and Trace denied it was “failing”, and a high-ranking minister criticized people for “complaining” about its shortcomings.
Baroness Dido Harding, Director of NHS Test and Trace, acknowledged that demand significantly exceeded capacity.
But he said the size of the system had been modeled after the government’s scientific advisers and suggested that problems were exacerbated when people without symptoms sought tests for which they were not eligible.
Faced with criticism for the paucity of evidence, Commons leader Jacob Rees-Mogg told MPs that “instead of this never-ending complaint”, people should “celebrate the phenomenal success of the British nation in obtaining up to a quarter of a million tests of a disease. ” that nobody knew about until the beginning of the year. “
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