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Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says he is entering the “final phase” of the army’s operation in the northern Tigray region after weeks of fighting.
He said the army would try not to harm civilians in the regional capital, Mekelle, a city of 500,000 people, and urged residents to stay home.
The TPLF party, which controls Mekelle, has vowed to keep fighting.
The UN warns of possible war crimes if the Ethiopian army attacks Mekelle.
UN human rights chief Michele Bachelet told the BBC that the city’s residents were in “profound danger.”
“We are really alarmed by the dangerous situation, especially due to the civilians trapped in Mekelle,” he said, adding that there is “the possibility of serious violations of international humanitarian human rights law.”
Abiy’s announcement comes after the deadline he gave for Tigray fighters to surrender passed Wednesday.
Hundreds of people have reportedly been killed and thousands have been forced from their homes when Ethiopian forces have seized several towns in Tigray from the TPLF.
However, the details of the fighting are difficult to confirm because all telephone, mobile and Internet communications with the Tigray region have been cut.
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Local journalist Daniel Berhane, who is in Mekelle, told the BBC that there were still no signs of any attacks and that the town’s shops, cafes and restaurants were “almost full”.
Three representatives from the African Union arrived in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa to try to negotiate the talks, but Ethiopia has so far rejected all attempts at mediation, saying the conflict is an internal matter and that the Abiyan government is engaged in a police mission in Tigray.
The three envoys will not be able to travel to Tigray.
Fear of expensive Mekelle offense
By Kalkidan Yibeltal, BBC News, Addis Ababa
In the “final phase” of the military offensive launched by Prime Minister Abiy following the expiration of the 72-hour ultimatum, he spoke of a military strategy in which high-level TPLF personnel would be brought to justice without harming civilians or properties in the surroundings. Mekelle.
It is not clear what that strategy is, but it will not be easy to carry it out, especially if there is active fighting in the city. Artillery strikes, as suggested by an army official last week, and air strikes are particularly difficult to carry out without killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure.
Federal government troops could find themselves in a kind of guerilla warfare from the area outside of Mekelle.
And it could also take longer than the government would like to complete the offensive. That could mean a worsening of the humanitarian crisis and, consequently, more international pressure.
In the past three weeks, the government has taken control of several areas in Tigray, but at a cost. An offensive in the state capital, believed to be the main stronghold of the TPLF, could be even more costly.
What did Prime Minister Abiy say?
He ordered the Ethiopian army to launch an offensive against Mekelle in the “third and final phase” of the federal government’s military campaign against the TPLF.
Abiy said “great care” will be taken to protect civilians and “every effort” will be made to limit damage to Mekelle.
image copyrightReuters
He urged people in Mekelle and the surrounding areas to disarm, stay home, and stay away from military targets.
Religious and historical sites, institutions and residential areas will not be targeted, he said.
How is the TPLF responding?
The leader of the powerful regional party, Debretsion Gebremichael, has said that Tigray’s forces are “ready to die in defense of our right to administer our region.”
TPLF fighters, mostly from a paramilitary unit and a well-trained local militia, are believed to number about 250,000. Some analysts fear that the situation will escalate into a guerrilla conflict, and the TPLF will continue to attack government forces even if they take Mekelle.
An example of how this could play out is the battle for Aksum airport, which according to pro-government sources fell to Ethiopian forces on November 11 and is still controlled by them.
But 11 days after the capture, state media published images of the runway apparently strewn with rubble and with trenches dug to prevent aircraft from landing, accusing the TPLF of sabotage attacks. Debretsion denied destroying the airport and said his forces had put up obstacles to stop the Ethiopian army.
Reuters quoted a diplomatic source as saying that the TPLF “has mobilized a lot of people in Mekelle.” The person added: “They are digging trenches and everyone has an AK-47. [rifle]. “
Aid groups fear the conflict could trigger a humanitarian crisis and destabilize the Horn of Africa region.
Ethiopia’s state-appointed Human Rights Commission accused a group of Tigray youths of being behind a massacre earlier this month in which it says more than 600 non-Tigrayan civilians were killed in the city of Mai-Kadra. The TPLF has denied participation.
Learn more about the Tigray crisis:
What is the fight about?
The conflict is rooted in a long-standing tension between Ethiopia’s central government and the TPLF, which was the dominant political force across the country until Abiy came to power in 2018 and introduced a series of far-reaching reforms.
When Abiy postponed a national election due to the coronavirus in June, relations deteriorated further.
The TPLF said that the central government’s mandate to govern had expired, arguing that Abiy had not been tested in a national election.
In September, the party held its own elections, which the central government said were “illegal”.
Then, on November 4, the Ethiopian prime minister announced an operation against the TPLF, accusing his forces of attacking the army’s northern command headquarters in Mekelle.
