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The UK’s coronavirus reproduction rate may have fallen below the crucial number of one,
The UK’s coronavirus reproduction rate may have fallen below the crucial number of one, according to government scientists.
SAGE, the Scientific Advisory Group for Number 10 Emergencies, estimates the ‘R’ to be between 0.9 and 1.0 across the UK, down from 1.0 and 1.2 last week.
The R value represents the average number of people to whom each Covid-19 patient transmits the disease and is one of the key indicators of how the virus is spreading.
Putting it below one is crucial because it indicates that the epidemic is receding. An R of one means that every 10 infected people pass it to 10 others.
All regions of England are now believed to have an R below one, except London and the South East, where it is around the crucial number.
It’s the first time the R has been below one since the week through September 4, before the second wave took off when colleges and schools came back later that month.
Reproduction value has been falling since the first tiered system was introduced in October. But it has been further reduced thanks to the national blockade.
The fact that the disease is already in retreat will raise further questions about whether the Tiers that go into effect on Wednesday are necessary.
Boris Johnson announced yesterday that all but three spots in England will sink into the toughest brackets when the national shutdown ends. He admitted today that the Tiers are “frustrating” for low infection areas, but refused to change course, insisting the rules should be kept “simple.”
The prime minister defended the controversial new system that takes effect from December 2, saying that while he ‘totally understood’ why people were upset, it was not possible to treat neighboring places differently.
The Prime Minister was shown samples at the side test site at Porton Down near Salisbury today.
On a visit to the Porton Down lab, Johnson also offered the possibility that some areas could see their state degraded within weeks.
Johnson said: ‘I know it is frustrating for people when they are in a high level area when there is very little incidence in their village or area. I totally understand why people are frustrated. ‘
He added: “There really is a possibility that areas can … go down the scale of levels.”
Earlier, Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick said there was “ every reason to believe ” that restrictions may be loosened in some places over the next several weeks, even though other ministers have told MPs that there are few chances of that happening before January.
Johnson faces war with his own MPs over the new lockdown system that he will maintain could keep 99 percent of the country at levels 2 and 3 after Dec. 2.
Up to 70 Conservative MPs, even in traditional territories like Kent, are believed to be considering rebelling after it emerged that people would only be able to socialize indoors and have a drink without eating in pubs in Cornwall, the Isle of Wight and the Isles. . by Scilly.
Conservatives have warned that the prime minister will face the “biggest revolt in this Parliament” when the plan is put to a vote in the Commons on Tuesday.
Labor is unlikely to directly oppose the measures, which means they will almost certainly pass, but a major riot would be another major blow to Johnson’s authority.
The anger will be fueled by today’s latest official data showing that only three local authorities in England saw their coronavirus infection rates rise last week.
More than half (97 of 149) saw the number of Covid cases plummet by at least 25 percent, according to Public Health England’s weekly infection surveillance report.
Medway, East Sussex and Redbridge, in London, were the three authorities that recorded increases in Covid-19 infections, at 28.4%, 5.2% and 5%, respectively.
Hospitality bosses say three-quarters of pubs and restaurants will be rendered “ unviable ” by draconian rules after the widespread national shutdown ends on December 2, leaving 32 million people on Level 2 and 23 million on Level 3.
Rural places like the Kent town of Penshurst, which has only had three cases in the past week, have plunged into Level 3 because they are under a local authority with high infection rates.
In a round of interviews this morning, Mr. Jenrick tried to defuse tensions by stressing that there will be a review of Tier assignments on December 16, and then they will be re-examined each week.
‘It’s possible. There will be a checkpoint in 14 days, around December 16. At that time, advised by the experts, we will analyze each area of the local authority and see if there is a possibility of lowering the levels, ” he told Sky News. .
However, MPs have told MailOnline that Health Minister Helen Whately said in a conference call yesterday that there was little chance of changes to the allocations before January. And government sources told the Times it would have to wait until the impact of the relaxation of the ‘Christmas bubble’ became apparent.
SAGE experts also question the idea of changes in two weeks, warning that it would not be enough to judge what impact the measures were having.
