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The UK’s coronavirus alert level will rise from 3 to 4 in the first change since June after infections soared.
All four chief physicians recommended the change tonight and Health Secretary Matt Hancock was expected to confirm it imminently.
The change was announced after a dire warning from the country’s two top scientists, and as Boris Johnson prepares to announce new restrictions tomorrow.
It is understood that No10 is considering a national curfew at 10pm for pubs and restaurants, and a ban on two households from socializing together indoors.
A number of exemptions would apply to the ban on gatherings, including a new exemption announced today to allow the care of children under the age of 14.
It is not yet clear whether the measures will apply to the whole of the UK or just to England, but the prime minister has held talks with delegate governments in an attempt to take a UK approach.
In a televised address to the nation this morning, Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance outlined the grim data that may force new national lockdown restrictions within days.
(Image: Pippa Fowles / No10 Downing Street)
The medical director and chief scientific adviser hinted that the social gatherings could be the first crackdown when Boris Johnsong gives a speech later this week.
They also warned that the rules can be in effect for six months.
And they said that if cases continued to double each week, the total number of new cases could reach 50,000 a day by mid-October.
Hancock said that there are now around 6,000 new cases a day and that the virus is increasing in all age groups.
A statement tonight from the four UK Medical Directors said: “The Joint Center for Biosafety has recommended that the alert level for COVID-19 should move from Level 3 (a COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation) to Level 4 (A COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high or increasing exponentially).
“CMOs from England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have reviewed the evidence and recommend that all four UK nations move to Level 4.
“After a period of lower COVID cases and deaths, the number of cases is increasing rapidly and probably exponentially in significant parts of the four nations.
“If we want to avoid significant excess deaths and exceptional pressure on the NHS and other health services during the fall and winter, everyone must follow social distancing guidelines, wear face covers correctly, and wash their hands regularly.
“We know this will be worrying news for many people; please follow the rules, take care of each other and together we will get through this.”
What are the coronavirus alert levels?
There are five alert levels, established by a Joint Biosafety Center that was established in May to deal with the pandemic. They are:
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Level 1 COVID-19 is not known to be present in the UK
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Level 2 COVID-19 is present in the UK, but the number of cases and transmission is low
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Level 3 A COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation
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Level 4 There is an epidemic of COVID-19 in general circulation; transmission is high or increases exponentially
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Level 5 As level 4 and there is a material risk that health services will be overwhelmed
What is the UK’s Covid-19 alert level now?
As of Monday, September 21, the alert level is four, which means that “there is an epidemic of COVID-19 in general circulation” and “transmission is high or increasing exponentially.”
It was last changed on Friday, June 19, when it was reduced from four to three.
Before June, the alert level was at four since the system was installed in May.
Who accepts the UK alert level?
(Image: PA)
Changes to the alert level are recommended by the JBC and then approved by the four medical directors in the four UK nations.
In other words, Boris Johnson has no direct power to change the alert level.
The level is primarily set by R, the number of new people each carrier is infecting, and the total number of coronavirus cases.
What is the alert level actually used for?
(Image: Getty Images)
There is a great debate about some of this.
We know from the roadmap to ease the lockdown, published on May 11, that the alert level is designed to “clearly communicate to the public the current level of risk.”
So it’s a bit like the terrorist threat level.
It compresses all the risks the UK faces into a “star rating”, to give the public a vague idea of how bad things are.
It shows the threat now, not the possible future threat if the virus gets out of control again.
What is controversial is how much the level of alert directly affects the lockdown. When it was first announced in May, the government said there was a link, but now claims there is no link.
What did the government say before?
When the alert level system was installed in May, the government linked it to easing the blockade.
In a slide of May 11 (above), it is said that at level 4 the current measures and restrictions of social distancing are maintained.
Only at level 3 would there be a “gradual relaxation of social distancing restrictions and measures.”
And at level 2 there would be no “minimal or no social distancing measures.”
And Boris Johnson said on May 10: “That Covid alert level will tell us how tough we have to be on our social distancing measures – the lower the level, the fewer measures.”
“The higher the level, the tougher and stricter we have to be.”
What does the government say now?
(Image: Getty Images)
Since then, the government has changed its tune and made it clear that any change in the blockade is no based on alert level.
Instead, since the beginning of the summer, No10 has said that any lock change is based on the “five tests” to ease the lock:
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