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There is a risk of a new world war if current minor conflicts escalate out of control, attracting more countries and weapons, warned the head of the UK armed forces.
General Sir Nick Carter said that the global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus The pandemic could also unleash new security threats, including war.
In an interview with Sky News for Remembrance sunday, the chief of defense staff offered a glimpse of the British army in the 2030s, saying it could comprise 90,000 human soldiers and 30,000 robots.
General Sir Nick Carter said the world is currently “a very uncertain and anxious place.”
He also revealed a desire for a multi-year budget deal from the Treasury this month to allow the military to make the long-term investments needed to modernize.
the chancellor plans scrapped for a multi-year spending review for government departments in November due to uncertainty related to COVID-19.
Instead, annual budgets are being prepared, though talks are continuing to see if the Defense Ministry can reach a different deal.
It is unusual for a high-ranking military officer to comment on an imminent political decision.
Speaking at the National Army Museum in London, General Carter underscored the importance of Remembrance, even as the country faces the COVID-19 crisis and mounting economic problems.
“It’s about honoring those who gave their lives in the service of our country, and of course they did it to protect our way of life and our freedom. I think it would be very dangerous if we forgot about that,” he said.
When asked why it would be dangerous, he said: “Because I think what we would also forget is the true horror of war and if one forgets the horror of war, I think the great risk is that people may think that going to war is a reasonable thing to do. “
Past economic crises have sparked security crises and General Carter said he was concerned this could happen again given the blow inflicted on the world economy by the pandemic.
The chancellor recently scrapped plans for a multi-year spending review.
“I think we are living in a time where the world is a very uncertain and anxious place,” he said.
“I think the real risk that we have, with a lot of regional conflicts going on right now, is that you could see that escalation leads to miscalculation and that’s something that I think we should avoid.”
Explaining what he meant by miscalculation, the military leader said: “The protagonists, either because they do not realize the implications of their actions, lead to escalation, which means that perhaps more people get involved, more armament gets involved and before it can contain it, it leads the sides to end up in a full-blown war.
“We have to remember that history may not repeat itself, but it has a rhythm and if you look back at the last century, before the two world wars, I think it was indisputable that there was an escalation that led to miscalculation that eventually it led to war on a scale we would hopefully never see again. “
When asked if he was saying that the threat of another world war was real, General Carter said: “I am saying that it is a risk and I think that we must be aware of those risks and that is why the memory is important because if you look back in the story, hopefully you learn from their experience and make sure to be very cautious about how you handle the kind of regional conflicts that we see unfolding in the world today. “
He did not specify which conflicts, but at least 1,000 people have died in nearly six weeks of fighting in clashes between Turkey-supported by Azerbaijan and Russia-Armenia allied over the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
About 1,000 have died in clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan
At the same time, countries, including Russia, Iran, the US and the United Kingdom, have forces operating in or around Syria.
Meanwhile in Ukraine, a conflict continues between Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country and Ukrainian government forces.
As for the UK, the top commander said he did not know whether the Treasury would grant defense a multi-year budget deal.
“Right now negotiations are going on in a very constructive way,” General Carter said.
“But clearly from our perspective we are going to defend something like this because we need long-term investment because long-term investment gives us the opportunity to have confidence in modernization.
“Modernization essentially means that you are going to park some capabilities, perhaps from the industrial age, and you want to look forward to some of the capabilities that you need for the information age.
“And having the confidence to do that, of course, means you need confidence in your investment for the long term.”
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Defense analysts say a multi-year budget is needed to fund the military element of a major foreign, defense and security policy shakeup being carried out by the Boris Johnson administration.
The Integrated Review was due to be presented this month, but it appears that it will be further delayed due to the pandemic; it was initially expected to be published earlier this year.
The document is expected to set out how the UK armed forces are adapting, and analysts anticipate a reduction in heavy armor, such as tanks, and a greater emphasis on lighter and more agile forces, as well as cyber weapons and vehicles and autonomous aircraft.
“I think you will see a military designed for the 2030s,” General Carter said. “It won’t get there overnight, but that’s the direction of travel.”
When asked if he could give a little more clarity on whether the revision would mean that a target figure for the army of 82,000 soldiers would be lowered, the warlord said: “No, I cannot explain it, especially since the decisions were not made, but what I’m implying is that we should think about how we measure effects in a different way.
“I mean, I suspect we can have an army of 120,000 of which 30,000 could be robots, who knows.
“But the answer is that we need to open our minds to maybe numbers that do not determine what we should be doing, but rather the effect that we can achieve is really what we should be looking for.”
The armed forces have supported massive coronavirus testing in Liverpool
The armed forces are playing a key role in the government’s response to the pandemic, with some 2,000 personnel deployed in Liverpool to help with a massive coronavirus testing program For the city.
“I suspect that if that works properly, we might find that there are other areas where we need to help in a similar way,” General Carter said.
He said that using the military to take over the entire coronavirus testing program was an option, but added that he was confident in the current setup at the moment.
Returning to Remembrance, General Carter said it is a shame that the coronavirus restrictions mean that veterans will not be able to mark Remembrance Sunday in the same way as usual.
“But at the end of the day, Remembrance is essentially something very personal too and I think the message I’d like to get across to people is that we remember at home if we can’t do it collectively, let’s keep our doors at 11 o’clock and bow our heads and think about what our ancestors did for us. “
