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UK government sources have calculated that the chances of a Brexit deal do not exceed 50% as Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen prepare to open direct talks after their negotiators failed to reach an agreement in London.
Leaving King’s Cross for Brussels on Saturday morning, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier told reporters: “We remain calm, as always, and if there is still a way, we will see.”
The president of the European Commission and the prime minister of the United Kingdom, who is at Checkers, are expected to speak by phone in the late afternoon. EU sources say the talks have come down to big political decisions on the three contentious issues: fisheries, fair competition and dispute resolution.
All other parts of the treaty, which are expected to be over 600 pages long, are understood to be in order.
Negotiations were long expected to end with arbitration between the two political leaders, but it is not certain that an acceptable way forward will be found.
If the two leaders give their negotiators further instructions, more work on the potential deal will be completed in time for the EU ambassadors in Brussels and the Cabinet in Westminster to examine the terms on Sunday, but the schedule could slide into part one of the week.
Johnson and von der Leyen will discuss how they could pink their red lines to find common ground on “level playing field” provisions and proper access for EU fishing vessels to British waters by the end of the year.
EU sources rejected Downing Street’s claims that the demand for a 10-year transition period to introduce changes to European fishing fleets was the major obstacle to a deal. “The UK wants a short transition, we have asked for a much longer one. There is a middle way, and that is not the cause of any problem, ”said a source.
The most important difficulties relate to the need for the EU to have guarantees that the UK will not be able to distort trade through subsidies or by undervaluing environmental, labor and social standards.
The ways and means of providing such guarantees, without hampering independent policymaking in Whitehall, have haunted the talks from the beginning.
EU sources said London had not even granted the principle of “non-regression” of the common standards at the end of the transition period, due to differences on the definition and mechanics of dispute resolution.
A major bone of contention for the British side is Brussels’ intention to exempt all EU funding from future state aid rules, a move raised by one of Britain’s deputy negotiators a few weeks ago but not yet it has been solved.
In a joint statement on Friday night, UK chief negotiator David Frost and Barnier said they had been unable to reach an agreement on final issues and that the historic trade and security negotiation would come to a halt.
“After a week of intense negotiations in London, the two main negotiators agreed today that the conditions for an agreement are not met, due to significant divergences on the playing field, governance and fisheries,” Barnier and Frost said in their release.
“On this basis, they agreed to pause the talks to inform their directors about the status of the negotiations. President von der Leyen and Prime Minister Johnson will discuss the situation tomorrow afternoon. “
Von der Leyen, a former German defense minister, has been privately criticized by diplomats from some member states for her zeal in seeking a deal with the UK. In some EU capitals it is feared that, as with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the intention is to strike a deal at any cost, as described by a senior EU diplomat in Brussels.
Merkel’s spokesperson urged both sides on Friday to look beyond their red lines to reach a deal, while the French government said it could exercise its veto if the deal did not meet expectations.
Merkel’s spokesperson, Steffen Seibert, said: “For the chancellor, and that has not changed in recent weeks, the willingness of both parties to compromise is needed. If you want to reach an agreement, both parties must move with each other. Everyone has their principles, there are red lines, that is clear, but there is always room for compromise ”.
