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The prime minister knew that he could not lead the English national shutdown beyond December 2.
He could have a majority of 80, but if he had tried to extend this four-week lockdown, his restless party would not only have abandoned him but also denounced him, leaving his already troubled prime minister in even greater danger.
Instead, the prime minister announced on Monday a COVID winter plan with a new tiered system.
Concessions were offered to members of his party and his cabinet concerned about the economic and social consequences of the measures: shops, gyms, and beauty and hairdressing salons open at all levels, while the 10 p.m. curfew will be extended until 11 pm – measures to help the high street on Christmas Eve.
But if the prime minister gave with one hand, he took with the other. The reward of getting out of an English lockdown and having some restrictions for a few days at Christmas is that the levels we will live under are harder and last longer.
The tough road ahead of us stretches from Christmas, New Years and the first three months of 2012 to Easter on April 4.
These measures are difficult for the public to accept and MPs oppose them. At least 70 of Boris Johnson’s own supporters are deeply unhappy with the package of measures and are demanding that the government release a cost-benefit analysis for every restriction the government proposes to introduce.
As one rebel told me Monday night: “MPs will be wrestling with this until we get to a vote. The problem with the prime minister is that the public has discovered that if you are under 60, this disease is not especially dangerous.
“Young people are wasting a year of their lives and facing dire financial prospects … it is extremely difficult to see how he will manage to overcome me.”
And that controversy could well grow, not just in Parliament but across the country later, when the government describes which parts of the country are at what levels on Thursday.
The prime minister himself admitted on Monday that levels were harsher and more of the country would be in the higher bands.
This will be a battlefield, with the decision on which areas are placed where the Secretary of Health takes at the cabinet level with the advice of the Chief Physician, taking into account the number of cases in those over 60, local pressure on the NHS and local R number. There will be no negotiation with the local authorities.
Parliamentarians, local leaders and businesses will watch with awe the prospect of returning to Level 3, which now appears to be closed, with bars, restaurants, museums, galleries and other indoor entertainment closed. And any mix outside your home is limited to parks and public spaces.
Unions have yet to make a public commitment to support the measures. They, like many of Johnson’s own MPs, are waiting to see more details of the tier system and what financial support measures will be implemented.
It would be quite important if the prime minister’s four-month COVID Winter Plan is approved with the backing of Labor votes rather than Conservatives, a reflection of deep divisions in his party over handling the second wave of this pandemic.
There is at least some hope in all of this for spring with the prospect of three new vaccines on the horizon.
But between then and now it is a harsh winter for our economy and for our quality of life.
And while the outlook for public health will change when the seasons change, the economy will pay the price. It is not surprising that the prime minister has a tough job politically to get these measures carried over.
