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Based on a grim analysis, more than 22,000 nursing home residents in England and Wales may have already died as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.
Yesterday’s official data showed that nearly 9,000 COVID-19-related deaths had been recorded in nursing homes in the two countries as of early May.
But researchers at the London School of Economics fear the count is a huge understatement, and the actual number may more than double.
They said that nursing home residents admitted to the hospital before dying were not counted correctly, and that others who did not actually contract the virus may have died as a result of the least available medical care or help with eating and drinking.
His calculations took into account residents of hospital homes, believed to account for 15 percent of the official death toll in Britain.
And the grim projection also included ‘excess deaths,’ the number of people dying compared to the average, across the overall care industry.
It occurs when the government is still under fire for not offering enough support to care for homes during the crisis, as the industry accused it of rationing tests and protective equipment to focus its efforts on helping NHS hospitals.
Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer today asked Boris Johnson, in Questions from the Prime Minister, to account for 10,000 ‘unexplained’ deaths in nursing homes in April that had not been taken into account in government figures.
Johnson admitted that there was “much more to be done” to address the “tragedy” in the nursing home, but did not link the thousands of excess deaths to the response to the coronavirus.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed yesterday that 8,315 people died in nursing homes in England and Wales with coronavirus on their death certificate. Researchers from the London School of Economics suggest that this is only about 41 percent of the total, which could be more than 22,000.
The LSE research, published yesterday, has not yet been peer-reviewed, in which other scientists analyze the work and look for obvious holes.
It claims that the number of officially registered nursing home deaths is actually only 41.6 percent of the total.
Dr. Jose-Luis Fernández and doctoral researcher Adelina Comas-Herrera said: ‘Data on deaths in nursing homes directly attributed to COVID-19 underestimate the impact of the pandemic on nursing home residents.
‘They do not take into account the indirect mortality effects of the pandemic or the problems with identifying the disease as the cause of death.
“Not all nursing home residents die in nursing homes (according to CQC data, 15% of all nursing home resident deaths are found to occur in hospitals).
“Deaths of residents of nursing homes in hospitals are not currently taken into account in publicly available estimates of the number of deaths in nursing homes linked to the pandemic.”
The report showed that people who die and COVID-19 is actually mentioned on their death certificate can only represent a relatively small proportion of all nursing home residents who died during the pandemic.
The report says that people in nursing homes could have died because they had been forced to isolate themselves in their rooms and had lost help with eating and drinking.
They also may not have had the same access to medical care that had been provided before the pandemic, either because treatment was delayed or because they did not want to go to the hospital for fear of contracting the virus.
There are approximately 400,000 people living in nursing homes in Britain, and most of them have dementia, making them extremely vulnerable.
The report by Dr. Fernández and Mrs. Comas-Herrera added: ‘Calculate the total excess mortality in care homes since December 28 and adjust this assuming that 15 percent of care home residents die in the hospital suggests that by May 1 there had been an excess of 22,000 deaths of nursing home residents during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales. “
The LSE report comes after yesterday’s weekly statistics. showed that almost 10,000 nursing home residents have now died of coronavirus in Britain: a quarter of all victims in the UK.
Earlier this month, 8,312 people had died in nursing homes in England and Wales, along with 1,195 in Scotland and 232 in Northern Ireland, a total of 9,739.
An ONS spokesman, who collects the most accurate data on deaths in all parts of the community, said: ‘Our data shows just under 20,000 “excess” deaths recorded as of May 1 above the average in nursing homes since the pandemic began.
‘Of these, 8,312 have mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. We are conducting additional analysis on all deaths of nursing home residents to be released on Friday. ”
Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer and Prime Minister Boris Johnson clashed in Parliament today when Starmer urged the prime minister to account for 10,000 “unexplained” deaths that occurred in nursing homes in England and Wales in April.
The latest data from the Scottish National Registers (NRS) shows that 3,213 deaths related to the virus had been recorded as of May 10.
Although the number of people dying in nursing homes has remained below hospital deaths so far, residents account for a higher proportion of deaths reported each week, from just five percent of the total in early April to 40 percent. at the end of the month
Healthcare industry bosses and staff have accused officials of overlooking them in a fight to “protect the NHS.”
Routine testing was not available to staff or residents for most of March and April, and staff says vital personal protective equipment (PPE) has been limited.
Last week, top scientists said continued and uncontrolled outbreaks in homes were contributing to Britain’s slow emergence from closure.
The rate of reproduction of the virus is believed to be higher within homes and in hospitals, which means it is spreading faster and remains a danger, even though it is now at low levels in the community.
In today’s Prime Minister’s Questions, Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer urged Boris Johnson to explain why there had been 10,000 deaths from “unexplained” care homes in April.
Starmer said: ‘The ONS records the average number of deaths in nursing homes each month. In the past five years, the April average has been just over 8,000.
‘This year, the number of deaths in nursing homes for April was a staggering 26,000, which is three times the average, an additional 18,000 deaths this April.
“Using government figures, only 8,000 are recorded as COVID deaths, leaving 10,000 unexplained and additional care home deaths this April.”
The Prime Minister did not link the 10,000 deaths to the coronavirus response, but admitted that there was “much more to be done” to address the “tragedy” affecting the industry.
Johnson said: “Coronavirus is a terrible disease that affects some groups much more than others, I think the whole country understands.”
‘And in particular the elderly, and he is right to draw attention, as I said, to the tragedy that has taken place in nursing homes.
‘The National Statistics Office is responsible for producing the data they have, the Government has also produced data that not only shows that there has been, as I said, a terrible epidemic in nursing homes but since the action plan for care homes. They are seeing an appreciable and substantial reduction, not only in the number of outbreaks but also in the number of deaths. ‘
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said in a tweet today: “We are injecting another £ 600 million for care homes with our infection control fund to protect residents and staff in our coronavirus battle.”
ONS data shows that although houses are still reported to be under virus control, the number of people who died in them began to decline in late April.
At least 8,314 people had died of COVID-19 in England care homes by May 8, data from the Quality of Care Commission show. When the deaths in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are added together, the figure is 9,739
Data from England and Wales show that the number of people who died from COVID-19, and thus the total number of people who died week by week, had clearly begun to drop in late April.
Between April 18 and 24, nursing homes in England and Wales recorded 2,794 resident deaths. But between April 25 and May 1, it fell to 2,423.
Although the one-week drop is not enough to be sure of a trend, it coincided with a marked drop in deaths from all causes (21,997 to 17,953), in deaths from COVID-19 anywhere (6,746 to 4,744) and deaths in hospitals from coronavirus (4,841 to 3,214).
The scale of the tragedy in nursing homes has become clearer as the outbreak has progressed and appears to have peaked later than the hospital crisis.
In the week ending May 1, deaths in nursing homes accounted for 40% of the total, while hospital deaths accounted for 53%.
However, two weeks before (from April 11 to 17) this division was 23% and 70%.
And in the week ending April 3, only five percent of deaths occurred in nursing homes, compared to 89 percent in hospitals.
The Alzheimer’s Society said there are a “tragically high” number of people who die in care homes.
Charity research director Fiona Carragher said yesterday: “ Unfortunately, the devastation continues in nursing homes with more than three times the usual number of deaths reported average, clearly showing the cost of not paying attention. social on an equal footing with the NHS.
‘We need to know why the number of deaths in nursing homes remains so high in addition to the deaths reported by coronavirus. 70 percent of nursing home residents have dementia and we are deeply concerned that this indicates an increase in deaths from dementia, caused by the isolation and reduction of care workers.
‘Each of these deaths is a heartbreaking loss for your friends, family and caregivers, so the Government must honor its commitment to ensure that nursing homes receive evidence for all residents and the staff and protective equipment that they need.
“We are now approaching our third month of confinement, even with a tragically high number of deaths in nursing homes.”
The charity added that dementia patients are “really struggling” with visitation restrictions and urged the government to find a way to facilitate visiting hours to prevent their social welfare from being “irreversibly damaged.”
