The next two weeks are ‘crucial’ to end England’s blockade on December 2

The next two weeks are “absolutely crucial” in ensuring that England comes out of the blockade on December 2 as planned, warned a government scientific adviser.

SAGE member Professor Susan Michie says the next fortnight will determine what restrictions will be put in place when the country comes out of the lockdown, and ultimately decide whether people will be able to spend Christmas with their loved ones.

The behavioral scientist has urged the public not to become complacent with the announcement of a possible coronavirus vaccine, as it “ makes no difference ” to the current wave.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4, Professor Michie said: ‘It is too early to tell. I think the next two weeks will be absolutely crucial.

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“It’s going to be a very challenging two weeks, partly because of the weather, partly because, I think, the promise of a vaccine can make people feel complacent.

“But it is very unlikely that the vaccine will arrive until the end of the year or the beginning of the next and that will not affect the current second wave.

“So I think for the next two weeks, everyone has to put in all their determination.”

The chief professor has asked people to ‘really pay attention to resisting any impulse to break the rules’, as maintaining national restrictions ‘will maximize the chance’ of getting out of lockdown.

It comes as newly released documents, written the day before the second national lockdown was imposed, reveal that a Sage modeling subgroup expressed concerns about returning to the tier system.

If the lock is “tightly attached,” the number of reproduction may be reduced to less than one, depending on the model.

In this scenario, hospital admissions and deaths could be expected to decline until at least the second week of December.

However, the November 4 document adds: “If England reverts to the same tier system application before November 5, the broadcast will revert to the same rate of increase as today.”

Other documents from the end of October state that any hopes of families reuniting during the holiday season will also depend on the R-value staying below one for “some time.”

Sage announced on Friday that the R number in the UK had fallen to 1-1.2, and experts believe it is already below one in some places.

The R is expected to drop in more areas over the next two weeks as the English public remains under lockdown restrictions.

Government data shows that 462 people have died after testing positive for coronavirus in the past 24 hours, bringing the death toll in the UK to 51,766.

There have also been 26,860 new cases nationwide, a slight decrease from the 27,301 recorded on Friday.

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