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The lockdown is beginning to slow the spread of the virus, but not in all areas, new research has confirmed.
The Imperial College REACT study showed that 1.57% of the nearly 168,000 people taken with swabs in England between January 6 and 22 tested positive.
Rates are highest in London, where 2.83% of people, one in 35, had the virus.
The researchers tested a random selection of people regardless of whether they had symptoms.
The cases previously stabilized in the study and are now in “shallow decline,” according to the researchers.
Professor Paul Elliott, one of the lead scientists on the project, said: “We really have to be vigilant about what is happening.
“Even though we are now seeing this suggestion of a tick down, which is really good news, it is by no means as fast as at lock one.
“Unless we have a more rapid decline from these very high prevalence levels, there will continue to be pressures on health services.
“It is going in the right direction, but not fast enough.”
The study is broadly consistent with the findings of the Office for National Statistics weekly infection survey.
The seven-day moving average in positive COVID tests, which is reported daily on the government dashboard, has also fallen dramatically in the last fortnight.
But, like the ONS data, the Imperial study found significant regional differences.
Cases are declining in the southwest, southeast and London, while increasing in the East Midlands, the researchers said.
Professor Steven Riley, another of the lead scientists, said: “We cannot think why this is happening. The lockdown may be having a greater effect in some regions.
“Their possible behaviors can make the lockdown more effective in regions where it was preceded by Level 4 (restrictions).”
People who lived in larger households or areas with greater deprivation, and those with black or Asian ethnicity, were more likely to test positive.
Professor Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics at the Open University, said: “None of those patterns are new, of course, but it is depressing that they have been so consistent throughout the pandemic.”
Over three nights, Sky News will host a series of special programs examining the UK’s response to the pandemic.
Watch COVID Crisis: Learning the Lessons at 8 pm on February 9, 10, and 11.
