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More European sanctions against Russia may be announced next week, but even the humiliation of the EU’s foreign policy chief on a visit to Moscow last week does not appear to sharpen the bloc’s woefully divided policy toward the Kremlin, analysts say. .
Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, has come under heavy criticism from MEPs, diplomats and observers this week, who mostly saw him as embarrassingly outnumbered by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov .
But experts say the latest EU-Russia dispute is unlikely to lead to an immediate hardening of the bloc’s stance toward an increasingly assertive Moscow because member states cannot agree on how to handle Vladimir Putin’s regime.
Borrell’s trip, which had been opposed by some member states, culminated in a press conference during which Lavrov accused EU leaders of lying about the poisoning of jailed opponent Alexei Navalny and called the bloc an “unreliable partner. ”.
To add insult to injury, Borrell later learned from Twitter after the press conference ended that Russia had expelled diplomats from Germany, Sweden and Poland for allegedly attending demonstrations in support of Navalny.
The former Spanish foreign minister told MEPs on Tuesday that he wanted to see if Moscow was “interested in a serious attempt to reverse the deterioration of our relations and seize the opportunity for a more constructive dialogue.”
The answer was clear, he said: “They are not.” Russia “had not met the expectations of becoming a modern democracy,” he said, and was “progressively disconnecting from Europe, looking at democratic values as an existential threat.”
Borrell said there was “deep disappointment and growing mistrust” between the two sides and that he would propose new concrete measures, possibly including sanctions, against Moscow over Navalny’s imprisonment ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers on 22 June. February.
Lavrov has since responded, saying it was the EU that was “alienating Russia” and reaffirming Russia’s desire for a relationship “based not on unilateral demands, but on mutual respect and consideration of the interests of others” .
More than 70 MEPs have signed a letter demanding Borrell’s resignation. Dacian Cioloș, a Romanian MEP and leader of the centrist group Renew, said the visit had “unfortunately had a negative impact on the credibility of the EU in the diplomatic sector”.
Others, however, recognized a broader problem. Moscow “abused” Borrell’s visit “to humiliate and offend the EU,” said Dutch Socialist MEP Kati Piri, but the result might not have been the same “if EU leaders had taken a tougher stance … We need a united strategy on Russia. “
Reinhard Bütikofer, a prominent German Green MEP, followed suit, bluntly describing the visit as “a failure”, but noting that Borrell had been “treated very badly due to lack of unity in the [European] Advice”.
However, EU unity in Russia is unlikely to appear anytime soon. Despite growing concern over Moscow’s behavior in many capitals, there is wide disagreement on how to respond, with national economic and strategic interests far from aligning.
Germany, which played a major role in the EU sanctions against Russia after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, is resisting calls to withdraw from the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, preferring targeted sanctions against wealthy Kremlin supporters.
Meanwhile, France’s Emmanuel Macron still favors dialogue and a strategic “reset” in EU-Russia relations, while Poland and the Baltic states want much tougher action.
“Moscow knows what it wants from the EU: a relationship based on dealing separately with each member state,” said Judy Dempsey of the Carnegie Europe thinktank. “In contrast, the EU and member states collectively don’t know what kind of dialogue or relationship they want with Russia.”
Like his predecessors, Borrell was destined to fall short because the bloc lacks a genuinely European strategy that “combines values, common interests and objectives,” Dempsey said. “Until now, national interests in Europe have prevented that from happening. It’s hard to see that change. “
Nicu Popescu of the European Council on Foreign Relations argued that European attempts to re-establish relations with Russia were doomed because “they are based on the idea of mutual concessions.”
The Russian thinking, Popescu said, was that if the West wants to reboot, it is up to the West to pull out, meaning that “every new reboot offer only fuels Russian reluctance to truly commit.”
A more muscular approach could yield better results, he added. “Maintaining the pressure of sanctions, waiving Nord Stream 2 and fostering deeper security partnerships with the EU’s eastern neighbors could be a more difficult, but ultimately safer route to reengage with Russia.”
